More coverage
Revised tsunami source area (2012)
Additonal source rupture and tsunami area (2012)
Tokyo
Nankai Trough
Japan
Nagoya
Honshu
Hamamatsu
Chubu
Sagami Trough
Osaka
Tokai
Hiroshima
Suruga Bay
Tonankai
Shikoku
Nankai
Kyushu
JAPAN
100km
Large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough since 1600
Nankai
Tonankai
Tokai
1605
Keikyo (mag 7.9)
102 years
Houei (mag 8.6)
1707
147 years
32 hours later
Ansei Tokai (mag 8.4)
Ansei Nankai (mag 8.4)
1854
90 years
Tonankai (mag 7.9)
1944
2 years later
Nankai (mag 8.0)
1946
162 years
70 years
72 years
2016
Tokyo
Japan
Nagoya
Honshu
Hiroshima
Tokai
Sagami
Trough
Osaka
Suruga Bay
Tonankai
Shikoku
Nankai
100km
Revised tsunami source area (2012)
Additonal source rapture and tsunami area (2012)
Nankai Trough
Large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough
since 1600
Nankai
Tonankai
Tokai
Mag 7.9
1605
102
years
Mag 8.6
1707
147
years
32 hours later
Mag 8.4
Mag 8.4
1854
90
years
1944
Mag 7.9
2 years later
1946
Mag 8.0
158
years
66
years
68
years
2016
Chubu
airport
Nagoya
Ise Bay
JAPAN
17m
Hamamatsu
9m
Tsunami reaches land in less than five minutes in some areas
19m
6m
Hamaoka nuclear
power station
Suruga Bay
Tsunami reaches up
to 30m in height
Chubu
airport
Nagoya
JAPAN
17m
Tsunami reaches land in less than five minutes in some areas
Hamamatsu
9m
19m
Hamaoka nuclear
power station
Tsunami reaches up
to 30m in height
Chubu
airport
Nagoya
17m
JAPAN
Hamamatsu
9m
19m
6m
Hamaoka nuclear
power station
Suruga Bay
Tsunami reaches land in less than five minutes in some areas
Tsunami reaches up
to 30m in height
Estimated damage – worst case
Deaths
Tsunami
230,000
Tremor
82,000
Landslide
600
Total: 323,000
Fire
10,000
Buildings
Tremor
1.3m
Tsunami
146,000
Fire
750,000
Liquefaction
134,000
Landslide
6,500
Total: 2.4m
Comparison between Tohoku and worst-case Nankai earthquake
Tohoku (mag 9. 0)
Nankai (mag 9.0)
2.39m
323,000
1,015
1.63m
561
0.62m
18,800
0.13m
Wetted surface
area (km2) 1
Population of
wetted area 1
Dead and
missing 2
Building damage
(completely destroyed) 3
Estimated damage – worst case
Deaths
Total: 323,000
Tsunami
230,000
Tremor
82,000
Landslide
600
Fire
10,000
Buildings
Total: 2.4m
Tremor
1.3m
Tsunami
146,000
Fire
750,000
Liquefaction
134,000
Landslide
6,500
Comparison between Tohoku and
worst-case Nankai earthquake
Nankai (mag 9.0)
Tohoku (mag 9. 0)
Wetted surface area (km2) 1
1,015
561
Population of wetted area 1
1.63m
0.62m
Dead and missing 2
323,000
18,800
Building damage (completely destroyed) 3
2.39m
0.13m
Estimated damage – worst case
Deaths
Tsunami
230,000
Tremor
82,000
Landslide
600
Fire
10,000
Total: 323,000
Buildings
Tremor
1.3m
Tsunami
146,000
Fire
750,000
Liquefaction
134,000
Landslide
6,500
Total: 2.4m
Comparison between Tohoku and worst-case Nankai earthquake
Tohoku (mag 9. 0)
Nankai (mag 9.0)
2.39m
323,000
1,015
1.63m
561
0.62m
18,800
0.13m
Wetted surface
area (km2) 1
Population of
wetted area 1
Dead and
missing 2
Building damage
(completely destroyed) 3
4.2
7.3
Shinkansen
JMA seismic intensity scale
Fuji
Nagoya
Shizuoka
Suruga Bay
Chubu
airport
Ise Bay
Hamamatsu
Hamaoka nuclear
power station
Nagoya
Toyota
Boeing
Key structures by industry
Automotive
JAPAN
power stations
20km
Aerospace
20km
JMA seismic intensity scale
4.2
7.3
Shinkansen
Fuji
Nagoya
Shizuoka
Suruga Bay
Chubu
airport
Ise Bay
Hamamatsu
Hamaoka nuclear
power station
Nagoya
Toyota
Boeing
JAPAN
Key structures by industry
Automotive
power stations
Aerospace
JMA seismic intensity scale
20km
7.3
Shinkansen
Nagoya
4.2
Chubu
airport
Hamamatsu
Hamaoka nuclear
power station
Toyota
Nagoya
Boeing
Key structures by industry
JAPAN
Automotive
power stations
Aerospace
Damage to assets (in disaster area)
Land-side case1 (¥tn)
Buildings
119.1
Assets
29.3
Transport
4.7
Total: ¥169.4tn
Lifeline2
4.1
Other
12.2
Basic case
Buildings
67.5
Assets
16.1
Transport
3.2
Total: ¥97.7tn
Lifeline
2.6
Other
8.3
Damage to assets (in disaster area)
Land-side case1 (¥tn)
Buildings
119.1
Assets
29.3
Transport
4.7
Lifeline2
4.1
Other
12.2
Total: ¥169.4tn
Basic case
Buildings
67.5
Assets
16.1
Transport
3.2
Lifeline
2.6
Other
8.3
Total: ¥97.7tn
Damage to assets (in disaster area)
Land-side case1 (¥tn)
Buildings
119.1
Assets
29.3
Transport
4.7
Total: ¥169.4tn
Lifeline2
4.1
Other
12.2
Basic case
Buildings
67.5
Assets
16.1
Transport
3.2
Total: ¥97.7tn
Lifeline
2.6
Other
8.3
Saving of life
Buildings
Complete collapse due to quake
627,000
361,000
240,000
118,000
79%
90%
95%
100%
Earthquake resistance
Persons
Death by building collapse*
38,000
21,000
14,000
5,800
79%
90%
95%
100%
Earthquake resistance
* Midnight in winter
Saving of life
Buildings
Persons
Complete collapse due to quake
Death by building collapse*
38,000
627,000
21,000
361,000
14,000
240,000
118,000
5,800
79%
90%
95%
100%
79%
90%
95%
100%
Earthquake resistance
* Midnight in winter
Cost of rebuilding
Basic case
¥ tn
0.6
83.4
42.5% REDUCTION
0.5
43.7
13.6
12.0
Without
With
Countermeasures
Public
Private
Semi-public
Land-side case1
¥ tn
0.9
148.4
52.6% REDUCTION
0.6
63.4
20.2
16.3
Without
With
Countermeasures
Cost of rebuilding
Basic case
Land-side case1
¥ tn
¥ tn
Semi-public
0.9
148.4
Private
Public
52.6% REDUCTION
0.6
83.4
0.6
42.5% REDUCTION
63.4
0.5
43.7
20.2
16.3
13.6
12.0
Without
With
Without
With
Countermeasures
Countermeasures