Chinese Social Media Video On Potential Impact Of Iran Being Defeated By U.S. And Israel: This Is A Battle China Cannot Afford To Lose

On June 20, 2025, the "Steel Tooth Brother" account on the Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu posted a video titled "If Iran Loses, Will It Have an Impact on China?" In the video, the narrator discussed the critically strategic nature of Iran's location and the importance of the Strait of Hormuz with regard to oil exports, predicting that an Iranian defeat would give the U.S. control over Middle Eastern oil, breathing "new life" into the U.S. dollar and reshuffling the balance of power in the region. The narrator also said that an Iranian defeat would allow U.S. influence to spread northward and "entrap" China and Russia, also risking China's Belt and Road Initiative. The narrator suggested that in order to prevent this scenario from unfolding, China must provide Iran with military equipment, use renminbi to settle China-Iran oil transactions, and align closely with Russia on the international stage against the U.S. and Israel. He added: "This is a battle China cannot afford to lose."

Chinese Narrator: "If a massive earthquake were to erupt in the Middle East, with its epicenter in Iran, the strongest shockwaves would undoubtedly surge straight toward China. This is not alarmism. If Iran – the anti-American stronghold in the Middle East – were to be jointly taken down by the U.S. and Israel, the security and developmental environment right on China's doorstep would change dramatically overnight. This isn't some distant war – it's a Damocles Sword hanging directly over our heads. Why would the impact be so immense? Iran’s location is critically strategic. It sits at the crossroads of the Eurasian continent, holding the oil valve of the Persian Gulf and the vital artery of global energy – the Strait of Hormuz.

"If Iran collapses, U.S. power will flood into the region like a tidal wave, once again seizing control of the Middle East's lifeline: oil. This isn't just about fluctuations in oil prices – it would be an epic resurrection of the U.S. dollar's hegemony. If the U.S. regains control over the pricing and transport channel of Persian Gulf oil, it would effectively breath new life into the beast that is the dollar.

"Global trade settlement would once again bow to America's will, and China’s push for internationalizing the renminbi could suffer a severe setback. The regional balance of power in the Middle East would be instantly reshuffled. Israel would undoubtedly seize the moment to eliminate its longtime adversaries – Hamas and the Houthi forces – and could even extend military conflict into Syria, squeezing out Russia's military presence there.

"What's more dangerous is that the gateway to Central Asia could be forced open, allowing U.S. influence to stretch northward and eventually form a giant C-shaped encirclement that pins down both China and Russia. Countries that have been hedging their bets – like Saudi Arabia and the UAE – might completely pivot toward the U.S. camp. The U.S.-led economic corridor linking India, the Middle East, and Europe would gain traction, while China's hard-won Belt and Road Initiative, whether by land or sea, could be severed at the waist – directly threatening China's energy lifeline.

"How important is Iran to China? It is a critical fulcrum in breaking through the 'Malacca Dilemma.' Nearly half of China's imported oil comes from the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz handles over 40% of that transport. If the Iranian regime is overthrown and control of the strait falls into pro-U.S. hands, our oil tankers could be choked at any moment. Even the core Gwadar Port of our strategic fallback operation, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, would be directly exposed to US military deterrence. This would be equivalent to delivering a precise surgical strike against our energy security.

"More seriously, the global noose tightening around China would be pulled taut. Currently, China, Russia, and Iran form an 'anti-American triangle.' With Russia already stretched thin in Ukraine, if Iran were to fall, China would be left alone to bear the full brunt of Western aggression.

"The U.S. would be free to mobilize NATO, the alliance with Japan and South Korea, and Indo-Pacific partners to launch a full-spectrum, suffocating containment strategy against China. Hotspots like the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the China-India border could all erupt simultaneously in a multi-front crisis. The patterns of history are very cruel. When your strategic buffers collapse one by one, the blade of hegemony inevitably swings toward the last challenger. China cannot afford to sit back and wait for the storm – it must take the initiative and fight a defensive war in the Middle East. Iran's survival is now directly tied to China's core interests. What should be done?

"First, strong military support: China must help Iran fully upgrade its defense systems – J-10C fighter jets, advanced air defense systems, integrated reconnaissance-strike drones. This equipment can completely arm Iran, and transform Iran into the 'Iron Pakistan of the Middle East' and build a solid defensive line.

"Second, deep economic integration: The core is oil trade – we must vigorously promote the use of renminbi to settle China-Iran oil transactions, and work with Pakistan to build an energy security network encompassing Pakistan, Iran, and China. This would secure supply while undermining the dollar's dominance.

"Third, grand strategic coordination: Close alignment with Russia is essential. On platforms like the United Nations, joint efforts must be made to dismantle the information and diplomatic offenses of the U.S. and Israel. Of course, Iran must also rise to the occasion. Tehran must abandon its illusions – hoping for Western compromise and concessions is tantamount to digging its own grave. Only through nationwide total mobilization and resolutely aligning completely with China can Iran replicate Pakistan's success of using force to resist hegemony. With its complex highland terrain, population of over 80 million, and strong will to resist, Iran can become an invader's nightmare – but the prerequisite for all of this is that the Iranian regime must maintain international unity and stability, and cannot collapse from within first. This is a battle China cannot afford to lose.

"The Middle East is staging a 21st-century version of the Battle of Red Cliffs. If the U.S. succeeds in taking Iran, the geopolitical landscape of the entire Eurasian continent will be redrawn. If we stand by idly, we may soon face three simultaneous crises: a blockade of the Malacca Strait, dramatic changes in the Taiwan Strait situation, and a fully revived dollar hegemony. Supporting Iran is not a multiple-choice question – it's a survival imperative tied to China's national destiny. Only by holding the line against the storm in the Persian Gulf today can we cut the noose tightening around the South China Sea tomorrow."