May 2008
by Tobias Harris
Posted May 10, 2008
Tokyo—Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Chinese President Hu Jintao were all smiles this week as Mr. Hu toured Japan and the two men did their best to improve strained relations between their two nations. But political conditions within Japan make it unlikely that the two leaders will make significant progress in solving the contentious issues in the relationship.
No matter how statesman-like Prime Minister Fukuda may appear, the Japanese public has largely abandoned him, and his own party, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP), is increasingly discontent with his leadership. From here on out Mr. Fukuda will have a hard time taking bold initiatives—in China policy or any other area—and is likely nearing the end of his tenure.
Speculation about a premature end to Mr. Fukuda’s premiership has raged since February, when public opinion polls began recording a sharp spike in the prime minister’s disapproval rating. Even the conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, whose opinion polls tend to reflect the newspaper’s editorial line, showed the prime minister’s disapproval rating climbing to 58.4% as of April 14, nearly double his 30% approval rating. The left-of-center Asahi Shimbun recorded a similar gap a week later, with 60% disapproving and only 25% approving of the prime minister.
Until recently, Mr. Fukuda shrugged off the parade of dismal poll numbers and ignored discordant voices within the LDP, not least because he could rely on the support of the party’s senior leaders, many of whom are in his cabinet. But that all changed after the LDP’s embarrassing defeat in the by-election held in Yamaguchi prefecture’s second district on April 27. The first by-election since Mr. Fukuda took office last autumn, it was considered a test of his leadership of the LDP, a test which the prime minister failed. Hideo Hiraoka, the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) candidate, defeated Shigetaro Yamamoto, the LDP candidate, by approximately 22,000 votes out of the 212,540 cast.
It wasn’t exactly a fair test for Mr. Fukuda. Mr. Hiraoka won the district in 2000 and 2003 before losing narrowly (588 votes) in 2005, a showing still strong enough to send him to the Diet via proportional representation. The LDP’s Mr. Yamamoto, on the other hand, was a first-time candidate who had recently retired from the transportation ministry. The stream of senior LDP politicians who visited the district to campaign for Mr. Yamamoto wasn’t enough, and Mr. Hiraoka won by the greatest margin of victory of his four campaigns.
But regardless of the DPJ’s strengths in the district, Mr. Fukuda’s inability to bring home a victory in a prefecture known as a “conservative kingdom”—Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister, represents its fourth district—has stripped him of whatever lingering claims he has to the LDP leadership.
His policy agenda, insofar as it exists, has been stymied, whether by the bureaucracy, LDP opponents, or the restive DPJ. On the signature issue of the current Diet session, the future of Japan’s “temporary” gasoline surcharge and the system whereby all gasoline tax revenue is earmarked for road construction, Mr. Fukuda produced a compromise plan—which calls for phasing out the road construction fund from 2009 while reintroducing the expired temporary surcharge —that pleases no one. Reformists in the LDP feel that the prime minister’s plan doesn’t go far enough; the road “tribe,” advocates of the status quo in road construction, feel that it goes too far. The DPJ wants to see an end to both the temporary tax and the road construction fund. Mr. Fukuda has attempted to placate everyone and as a result has pleased no one, least of all the Japanese people, who are increasingly discontent with both the Fukuda government and the LDP.
As the by-election showed, even traditional LDP constituencies are dissatisfied. A major factor in the size of the LDP’s defeat in Yamaguchi was the government’s poorly executed rollout of modifications to senior health-care a week before the election. This frightened and angered elderly voters, who customarily support the LDP in large numbers, and sent them into the arms of the DPJ. This continues the trend seen in last summer’s upper house elections, in which the DPJ performed well in LDP-leaning rural prefectures due in large part to discontent over the government’s mismanagement of pension records.
In short, LDP backbenchers now see Mr. Fukada as an electoral liability. Mr. Fukuda may limp through the remainder of the Diet session and survive to host the G-8 summit in Hokkaido from July 7-9, but it is unlikely that he will remain in office shortly thereafter. The LDP’s poor performance on April 27 seems to have been enough to convince party elders that Mr. Fukuda is not fit to lead the LDP into the general election that may come by year’s end.
In the meantime, the campaign to replace Mr. Fukuda, already active before the by-election, will likely intensify in the months leading up to the G-8 summit. Many believe that replacement will be Taro Aso, runner-up in last year’s leadership election. In a recent poll by the Jiji wire service that asked which politician would make the best prime minister, Mr. Aso ranked a close second behind Junichiro Koizumi, the beloved former prime minister—and far ahead of Mr. Fukuda. Whether Mr. Aso will be able to fix the broken LDP is another matter entirely.
Mr. Harris is a former aide to a DPJ member of the House of Councilors. He is now a freelance writer and author of Observing Japan (www.observingjapan.com), a Japanese politics blog.