WTPQ32 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2620 GAENARI (2620)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (GAENARI) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO. TS
  GAENARI IS LOCATED AT 25.7N, 124.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
  IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GOSAT-GW/AMSR3 89 GHZ
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
  CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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