338Canada.ca

338Canada.ca

User's avatar
Discover more from 338Canada.ca
Canadian politics by the numbers. 🍁 Subscribe to 338Canada for in-depth analysis of polling data, electoral maps, and Canada's ever-changing political landscape.
Over 19,000 subscribers
Already have an account? Sign in

The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre's Problematic Polls

Poilievre is trailing Carney by similar margins Trudeau was trailing Poilievre in late 2024...

Philippe J. Fournier's avatar
Philippe J. Fournier
Aug 14, 2026

The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold of 30%.

What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre, and could some upcoming by-elections be points of no return for his leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the plethora of recent polls that have been published and what they say for Mark Carney and Avi Lewis, as well as the Conservative leader.

We also discuss a trio of new polls out of Quebec that point to an unpredictable provincial election, as well as two new polls out of Ontario that have better news for Doug Ford ahead of three by-elections.

Then, we dive into the mailbag to answer some questions, including what odds we’d give an early election call.

You listen to the new episode on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

  • Apple Podcasts

  • Spotify

  • Acast

  • Podbean

Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

B.P. Majors's avatar
Jon's avatar
Bonny's avatar
L. David Dube C.M.'s avatar
Yakutat@‘94's avatar
21 Likes∙
3 Restacks

Discussion about this post

User's avatar
The Numbers: Jagmeet Singh rips up the deal — now what?
Who is ready for a spring election?
Sep 6, 2024 • Philippe J. Fournier
338 Sunday Update: A Stunning Reversal—The Conservative Lead is Gone
A historic turnaround in the polls sets the stage for a dramatic election campaign. Buckle up.
Mar 16, 2025 • Philippe J. Fournier
338 Sunday Update: Conservatives Slide as the Gap Widens
Federal polling stabilizes at unusually high levels for Mark Carney’s Liberals, while Conservative support continues to erode.
May 11 • Philippe J. Fournier

Ready for more?

© 2026 Philippe J. Fournier · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture