WTPQ32 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 36.0N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON
  THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
  TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
  UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
  CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
  GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
  VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR UNTIL FT06 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
  AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
  PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO
  THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
  BY FT18. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
  GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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