WTPQ30 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.6N 140.3E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
  30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
  STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
  SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
  VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE
  CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
  ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DUE TO
  INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
  UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
  REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS
  INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
  OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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