WTPQ31 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2616 PEILOU (2616)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 21.9N, 141.4E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
  (PEILOU) STATUS. TS PEILOU IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 142.7E.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
  35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
  THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
  SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GOSAT-GW/AMSR3 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
  CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
  TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
  WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
  DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
  INTENSITY BY FT60. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
  OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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