WTPN21 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 13W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5N 140.9E TO 20.9N 148.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.5N 140.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 13W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 139.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 140.9E APROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO. ANITMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONCOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN PERIHPERY OF THE REMNANTS OF 13W. A
081153Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20-25
KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP MORE INTO THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 13W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATERWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC IS THE PRIMARY MODEL INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OTHER GLOAL MODELS BEGINNING TO
SHOW MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH 13W TRACKING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091930Z.//
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