WTPQ32 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 23.5N, 166.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
  OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
  ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
  FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
  SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
  ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
  UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
  MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
  DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
  SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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