Political Matrix Poll: Speaker Paul Renner Surges, Fishback Rises Despite Ballot Challenge, Collins Collapses; Donalds Sees Little Movement Despite Trump Endorsement
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PENSACOLA, Fla. — A comparison of two independent statewide surveys conducted by Political Matrix, a division of Palafox Productions and Promotions, shows that 31.6% of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided, even as Speaker Paul Renner continues to surge, businessman James Fishback increased his standing despite ongoing legal challenges to his candidacy, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins has experienced a dramatic collapse in support, and frontrunner Byron Donalds has seen relatively little movement despite receiving President Donald Trump’s endorsement and benefiting from nearly $10 million in campaign and independent expenditures.
The only two major statewide developments occurring between the two independent Political Matrix surveys were the Florida gubernatorial debate hosted by entrepreneur and political commentator Patrick Bet-David and the PBD Podcast, and the emergence of legal challenges to businessman James Fishback’s eligibility to appear on the Republican primary ballot. The debate featured Speaker Paul Renner, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, James Fishback, while Byron Donalds declined to participate. During the same period, Fishback became the subject of ongoing litigation challenging whether he satisfies Florida’s constitutional residency requirements to qualify for the Republican gubernatorial ballot. While polling cannot attribute changes to any single event, these were the principal statewide developments occurring between the June and July surveys.
Despite the legal uncertainty surrounding his candidacy, James Fishback increased his standing between the two independent statewide surveys.Fishback increased from 2.0% in the June statewide survey to 13.1%in the July benchmark survey. His rise occurred even as litigation continues over whether he will ultimately qualify to appear on the Republican primary ballot.
The latest statewide benchmark survey places Byron Donalds at 32.2%, with Speaker Paul Renner solidly in second place at 18.8%, James Fishback at 13.1%, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins at 2.2%, while 31.6% remain undecided, demonstrating that nearly one-third of Republican primary voters have yet to make a final decision.
Compared to the June statewide survey, Speaker Paul Renner increased from 14.0% to 18.8%, continuing to build momentum within the Republican electorate and further establishing himself as the leading alternative in the Republican primary.
At the same time, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins’ standing deteriorated significantly between the two statewide surveys. Collins measured 11.0% in the June survey but stood at just 2.2% in the July benchmark survey, reflecting a dramatic decline in his position within the Republican primary electorate over the period between the two studies.
By contrast, Byron Donalds moved from 29.0% in the June statewide survey to 32.2% in the July benchmark survey—an increase of just 3.2 percentage points. While Donalds continues to lead the field, his support remained relatively stable despite carrying President Donald Trump’s endorsement, benefiting from nearly $10 million in combined campaign and independent expenditures, and choosing not to participate in the only statewide gubernatorial debate held between the two surveys. The comparison suggests that despite significant political and financial advantages, Donalds’ support has moved only modestly over the period between the two independent surveys.
The findings indicate that the Republican primary remains highly competitive. With 31.6% of voters still undecided, a substantial portion of the electorate remains available to be persuaded as candidates continue communicating their records, priorities, and vision for Florida.
“The defining story in this race is momentum,” said Greg Fink, CEO of Political Matrix. “Between our two independent statewide surveys, only two major statewide developments occurred: the Patrick Bet-David gubernatorial debate and the legal challenge to James Fishback’s residency qualifications. During that same period, Speaker Paul Renner posted the strongest gains among the established candidates, James Fishback experienced the increase despite uncertainty surrounding his ballot status, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins experienced the sharpest decline, and Byron Donalds remained relatively steady despite receiving President Trump’s endorsement, significant financial support, and choosing not to participate in the debate. With nearly one-third of Republican primary voters still undecided, this Republican nomination contest remains very much in play.”
Political Matrix notes that these findings compare two independent statewide surveys conducted several weeks apart and reflect changes in voter sentiment over time. While the timing of these developments coincided with measurable changes in candidate support, the surveys identify associations over time and do not establish that any single event caused those changes. As with any public opinion research, the surveys represent snapshots of the electorate during their respective field periods and should not be interpreted as predictions of the final election outcome.
Methodology
The June statewide survey interviewed 973 likely Florida Republican primary voters between May 31 and June 3, 2026, using live-operator telephone interviews and carried a margin of error of ±3.14 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
The July benchmark survey was conducted July 21–23, 2026, among 1,020 likely Florida Republican primary voters using a blended methodology of live-operator telephone interviewing and secure online surveying. The survey carries an approximate margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
About Political Matrix
Political Matrix, a division of Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc., is an independent public opinion research and strategic consulting firm specializing in political polling, voter analytics, campaign research, and public affairs throughout Florida and across the United States.
Media Contact:
Greg Fink
info@palafoxproductions.com
www.palafoxproductions.com
Principal, Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc.
Political Matrix / The Listener Group
