‘Wicked: For Good’ Box Office: Four Key Takeaways After a Boffo $147M Weekend
Don’t suck up to MAGA. Don’t prioritize an existing fanbase. Do, when it makes sense, split your long book or play into two films. Also, girls still rule the box office.
First, the bad news… Universal’s Wicked For Good opening weekend was a tad lower than the initial estimates. Granted, opening with $147 million isn’t exactly a problem, especially noting the current “kids out of school for much of the week” Thanksgiving holiday, which (as with films opening in that key pre-Christmas December frame) makes its first ten days into a glorified extended holiday debut. However, the revised number means I have to take back a few of its trophies.
With a launch just above The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($146 million in 2023) and just above Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($148 million in 2018), Wicked: For Good is now Universal’s fourth-biggest debut. And with a weekend gross below Furious 7 ($147.2 million in 2015), Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande can no longer claim the studio’s biggest ever “no-dinos no problem” domestic debut.
Say it with me now… #CanThisFranchiseBeSaved?
Now the good news… Universal’s Wicked For Good just opened 31% higher than Wicked Part One ($112.5 million in 2024), posting a percentage upswing on par with Thor: The Dark World, Iron Man 3, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II and Avengers: Endgame. Those last two have modest disclaimers. The eighth Harry Potter passion play was the first in the franchise to go out in 3-D (with related ticket upcharges). Also, Harry Potter 7.2 ($169 million in 2011) and Avengers 4 ($356 million in 2019) both set new opening-weekend milestones.
However, put a pin in those last two because I chose them as examples for a reason. In a related bit of trivia, Wicked Part One has exploded in popularity on streaming services.
JustWatch is reporting a 538% increase in demand over the last 30 days, with the 2024 blockbuster ranking #1 since November 19. It’s currently #1 on JustWatch, #29 on Amazon’s VOD charts, #2 on Prime Video’s SVOD list, #2 on iTunes, #3 on YouTube and #1 on Fandango.
And no, there’s no word on the $$ earned via transactional viewership. That Ari Aster’s $25 million Eddington is #2 on JustWatch doesn’t mean it’s making up the deficiency after its $13 million global theatrical run. That Wicked 1 is surging at home is only “good news” because Wicked 2 is kicking ass in theaters.
While streaming and theatrical can live together (as opposed to dying alone. However, this does not mean, to use an obvious example, releasing Expendables 4 in hopes that the first three Expendables flicks will see a relative surge in at-home viewership or transactional revenue (or using that as an excuse) is a good idea. However, in a seamless transition, what are the three lessons or takeaways from this boffo launch?
