Very interesting and scary report from Morgan Stanley
The financial engineering behind hyperscaler capex
The truly unsettling part of the AI boom isn’t how much money is being spent
It’s how that money is being engineered through accounting
Hidden liabilities (> $1.8T)
Huge obligations sit off‑balance‑sheet: nearly $1T in purchase commitments, $800B+ in leases not yet started, $2T+ in RPO.
Future cash outflows that don’t show up as debt.
The coming depreciation hit
Profits look good only because spending is stuck in CIP.
Big Tech faces $520B+ in depreciation over 3 years.
ORCL’s depreciation ratio: 7% → 28%.
Supplier financing pressure
Unpaid capex is ~$110B.
ORCL’s DPO exploded from 35 → 170 days.
The whole supply chain is effectively financing the AI build‑out.
Lease accounting gray zones
Whether GPU contracts count as leases or services is subjective — and companies use that flexibility to shift billions on/off the balance sheet.
$ORCL = the most aggressive
Largest lease commitments, RPO up 300%+, capex‑to‑sales hitting 189%.
Oracle is running the highest financial leverage in the ecosystem.
