WTPQ30 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 2611 HAISHEN (2611)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 10.7N, 136.8E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (HAISHEN)
  STATUS. TS HAISHEN IS LOCATED AT 10.7N, 136.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
  OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
  NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
  ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
  TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
  AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
  INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY DESPITE
  A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
  HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
  FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
  DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=