WTPQ31 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
  CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
  ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO
  WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
  HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
  GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT36
  DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
  DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
  WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
  WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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