{"id":"bavi-2026","date":"2026-07-08T15:00:00Z","details":"

Dies ist ein gef\u00e4hrliches System. Zu den m\u00f6glichen Gefahren z\u00e4hlen zerst\u00f6rerische Winde, starke Regenf\u00e4lle, Sturmfluten, raue See, Schlammlawinen und Sturzfluten.<\/em><\/p>

Informationen bereitgestellt von JTWC<\/span> Windgeschwindigkeiten und -kategorisierungen k\u00f6nnen von den Angaben der \u00f6rtlichen Wetterbeh\u00f6rden abweichen.<\/span>

Informationen auf Englisch:<\/strong><\/p>

Bavi (Japanese Typhoon Number 9) is located 1102 km south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, and has tracked west-northwestward at 22 km\/h (12 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 15.2 meters (50 feet).<\/p>

Bavi is forecast to begin tracking northwestward as the subtropical ridge<\/a> that is currently positioned over southern Japan<\/span> merges with the subtropical ridge that is situated to the northeast of Bavi over the next 6 to 12 hours.<\/p>

A northwestward track is then expected to persist over the next 4 days as Bavi tracks along the southwestern edge of the resulting subtropical ridge.<\/p>

A passage over the yaeyama islands is forecast to occur just before 60 hours as the system continues to head toward the eastern coast of China<\/span>.<\/p>

A final landfall<\/a> is forecast to take place soon after 3 days near wenzhou, China. Throughout the track leading up to the final landfall, the wind field of Bavi is expected to remain very large with gale-fore<\/a> winds extending up to 556 km from the center.<\/p>

Bavi will then track further inland into mainland China over the next 4 days before making a northward turn as the system attempts to round the western extent of the subtropical ridge.<\/p>

In terms of intensity, Bavi is forecast to continue slightly weakening over the next 12 hours under the influence of the moderate northeasterly wind shear<\/a> and potential eyewall replacement cycle<\/a>.<\/p>

Over the next 24 hours over the next 2 days, the intensity is expected to more or less be maintained as shear drops to below 30 km\/h (15 knots). In around 60 hours, Bavi is expected to enter an area of much lower ocean heat content<\/a> (below 25 kJ), triggering another bout of weakening as the system approaches the coast of China.<\/p>

After landfall, terrain interaction will cause the vortex to rapidly deteriorate with dissipation forecast to occur in around 5 days, west of Shanghai<\/a>.<\/p>

Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 3 days with no significant outliers and a cross-track spread of around 185 km. The EC-AIFS and experimental Google DeepMind are notably on the eastern end of the guidance envelope, suggesting a track directly over Ishigakijima while the physics-based models track the vortex closer to the northern tip of Taiwan<\/span>.<\/p>

After 3 days, the cross-track spread then opens up to about 519 km at 5 days. The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the multi-model consensus over the next 3 days with high confidence and then closer to the Google DeepMind over the next 5 days with medium confidence.<\/p>

Intensity guidance agrees on gradual weakening over the next 60 hours followed by a more rapid rate of weakening afterward with no significant variation between the reliable intensity guidance.<\/p>

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed close to the consensus with overall medium confidence due to inherent uncertainties revolving around the potential eyewall replacement cycle.<\/p>

Warnungsnummer 31. Informationen bereitgestellt von das Joint Taifun Warning Center (JTWC).<\/p>"}