Typhoon Bavi 2026

Bavi is located 1102 km south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, and has tracked west-northwestward at 22 km/h (12 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 15.2 meters (50 feet).

Bavi is forecast to begin tracking northwestward as the subtropical ridge that is currently positioned over southern Japan merges with the subtropical ridge that is situated to the northeast of Bavi over the next 6 to 12 hours.

A northwestward track is then expected to persist over the next 4 days as Bavi tracks along the southwestern edge of the resulting subtropical ridge.

A passage over the yaeyama islands is forecast to occur just before 60 hours as the system continues to head toward the eastern coast of China.

A final landfall is forecast to take place soon after 3 days near wenzhou, China. Throughout the track leading up to the final landfall, the wind field of Bavi is expected to remain very large with gale-fore winds extending up to 556 km from the center.

Bavi will then track further inland into mainland China over the next 4 days before making a northward turn as the system attempts to round the western extent of the subtropical ridge.

In terms of intensity, Bavi is forecast to continue slightly weakening over the next 12 hours under the influence of the moderate northeasterly wind shear and potential eyewall replacement cycle.

Over the next 24 hours over the next 2 days, the intensity is expected to more or less be maintained as shear drops to below 30 km/h (15 knots). In around 60 hours, Bavi is expected to enter an area of much lower ocean heat content (below 25 kJ), triggering another bout of weakening as the system approaches the coast of China.

After landfall, terrain interaction will cause the vortex to rapidly deteriorate with dissipation forecast to occur in around 5 days, west of Shanghai.

Model guidance is in good agreement over the next 3 days with no significant outliers and a cross-track spread of around 185 km. The EC-AIFS and experimental Google DeepMind are notably on the eastern end of the guidance envelope, suggesting a track directly over Ishigakijima while the physics-based models track the vortex closer to the northern tip of Taiwan.

After 3 days, the cross-track spread then opens up to about 519 km at 5 days. The JTWC track forecast is placed close to the multi-model consensus over the next 3 days with high confidence and then closer to the Google DeepMind over the next 5 days with medium confidence.

Intensity guidance agrees on gradual weakening over the next 60 hours followed by a more rapid rate of weakening afterward with no significant variation between the reliable intensity guidance.

The JTWC intensity forecast is placed close to the consensus with overall medium confidence due to inherent uncertainties revolving around the potential eyewall replacement cycle.