WTPQ31 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.3N, 157.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
  HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
  DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
  BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
  AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
  DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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