In today’s NHL, players aren’t just judged on their ability; they’re graded on value and efficiency — how large is their impact relative to their contract? Let’s look at players who didn’t live up to their contracts in 2025-26 and how much longer those deals will be on the books.
Here’s how we’ll conduct this exercise.
• We’ll be using Dom Luszczyszyn’s player model as a measuring stick. Net Rating provides an all-in-one performance metric that weighs factors such as point production, play-driving, defensive impact, penalties drawn, blocked shots, faceoffs, penalty-kill impact and more. That impact is then translated to a market value — what that player’s contributions should be worth — and that market value is compared to their actual cap hit.
• This is solely measuring regular-season impact; no playoff numbers are included.
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• A player isn’t “bad” if he ends up on one of the inefficient lists. It just means he wasn’t quite worth his cap hit in 2025-26, at least from a statistical perspective. There are plenty of high-end NHLers who you’ll see throughout the piece, many of whom actually played very well this season.
• We’ll only be identifying players who underperformed their cap hit by more than $1 million.
• No goalies will be analyzed.
• There are blind spots in the model, like any statistical measure — it’s not perfect. With that in mind, I used the model to generate an initial list of players for each team, but I occasionally exercised personal discretion to remove a player from the “inefficient” contracts pile or tweak the order if I felt there was an obvious flaw or blind spot in the model’s evaluation.
• Players who missed the overwhelming majority of the season weren’t included.
• Players who changed teams midseason weren’t included either.
Anaheim Ducks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-9.1 | $4,571,189 | 2 | |
-1 | $8,000,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
-3.3 | $7,000,000 | 5 | |
-2.4 | $6,250,000 | 1 |
Frank Vatrano: Vatrano averaged 26 goals per year in the three seasons spanning 2022 to 2025, including a career-high 37 in 2023-24, but his production fell off a cliff in 2025-26. The 32-year-old slumped to only five goals and four assists in 50 games — he’s been passed over on the depth chart by the Ducks’ new wave of forward talent and didn’t play in a single playoff game.
Ryan Strome was the Ducks’ other major underachieving veteran on a significant cap hit, but Anaheim shipped him to Calgary ahead of the trade deadline.
The other contracts on this list aren’t that problematic. Sure, Jacob Trouba isn’t an $8 million player, but he played massive top-pair minutes with decent results.
Mason McTavish tumbled down the depth chart and his defensive metrics were woeful, but he’s still a talented young player, and if he bounces back to a second-line center level, his $7 million AAV will look pretty good.
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Alex Killorn potted only 15 goals, which is modest relative to his $6.25 million AAV, but he made up for it with a strong postseason.
Boston Bruins
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
0.2 | $7,750,000 | 5 | |
0.8 | $6,500,000 | 4 | |
-6.8 | $3,400,000 | 4 | |
-1.3 | $5,000,000 | 4 |
Elias Lindholm: Lindholm is a trustworthy two-way middle-six center, but he’s paid to perform like a low-end first-liner (tied for the 25th highest cap hit among centers in 2025-26), which is a lofty bar he hasn’t been able to reach. The 31-year-old has fallen short of the 50-point mark in each of his first two years in Boston, and his play-driving metrics declined as well.
Coming off a 2024-25 campaign that was derailed by injuries, Hampus Lindholm is beginning to show his age, as his performance was closer to the level of a $4.5 million defenseman this past season. Lindholm can still capably handle second-pair minutes, but he can’t single-handedly drive a high-end pair by himself the way he could 2-3 years ago.
Tanner Jeannot and Nikita Zadorov are far less concerning. Yeah, both players’ cap hits are a bit steep relative to their on-ice impact, but they’re still capable performers, and their physicality and meanness are valuable intangibles.
Buffalo Sabres
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-5.6 | $4,000,000 | 1 | |
1.9 | $8,350,000 | 5 | |
0.5 | $6,250,000 | 1 | |
5.5 | $7,950,000 | 4 |
Jordan Greenway: Greenway is a solid bottom-six winger with an enormous 6-foot-6 frame and legitimate defensive value, but he’s constantly hurt and with only one goal and five assists in 40 games this year, he’s too limited offensively to live up to his $4 million cap hit.
Besides that, the Sabres are in a good position. Owen Power landed on this list because an $8.35 million AAV is commensurate with a low-end No. 1 defenseman (he was the 22nd highest-paid defenseman in the NHL this past season), and he’s not quite at that level, but he took promising strides this year, plus with his age and the rising cap, it’s reasonable to assume he’ll grow into that contract.
Bowen Byram had a difficult start to the season, but I’d argue from December onward that he was worth every penny of his $6.25 million cap hit.
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Josh Norris is a valuable top-six center — it’s simply his injury history that makes his contract seem a bit dicey.
Calgary Flames
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.2 | $10,500,000 | 5 | |
-5.3 | $5,750,000 | 4 | |
-5.5 | $6,500,000 | 6 | |
-6.9 | $5,350,000 | 5 |
Jonathan Huberdeau: He bounced back in 2024-25 with a 28-goal, 62-point season, but slumped to a measly 25 points in 50 games before suffering a season-ending hip injury. He’s a well-liked leader, but this contract is one of the worst in the NHL — he was the 11th highest-paid forward this past season, and he still has five years left on his deal.
The Flames signed Yegor Sharangovich to a long-term extension after his 31-goal campaign in 2023-24, but he’s been frustratingly inconsistent since then, as he mustered only 15 goals and 29 points this past season.
The other contracts are totally fine. Matt Coronato, 23, will grow into his $6.5 million AAV (he was unlucky with his finishing all season). The model penalized Kevin Bahl for having rough underlying numbers, but that’s only natural when you’re a big minute-muncher on an overmatched team.
Carolina Hurricanes
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-3.5 | $4,820,000 | 4 |
Jesperi Kotkaniemi: The Hurricanes have a nearly flawless cap sheet, with Kotkaniemi the only player who underperformed his contract. Kotkaniemi regressed to just nine points in 42 games and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.
Chicago Blackhawks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-7.5 | $5,500,000 | 1 | |
-6.7 | $5,400,000 | 1 | |
-7.9 | $4,600,000 | 4 | |
-5.4 | $4,000,000 | 3 | |
-2.2 | $4,750,000 | 0 (UFA) |
André Burakovsky: Chicago acquired Burakovsky as a cap dump from Seattle to ride shotgun on the first line with Connor Bedard. At first, it seemed like a decent fit, but the bottom completely fell out in the second half as Burakovsky scored just four points in his last 37 games.
Teuvo Teräväinen’s production fell to 35 points in 2025-26, which is the lowest mark since his first full-time NHL season, and his two-way play-driving metrics declined.
Alex Vlasic has failed to build on a breakout 2023-24 campaign in which he looked like one of the NHL’s premier shutdown defensemen. Vlasic’s defensive metrics have collapsed under the burden of carrying a young, inexperienced blue line. He’s still an effective player, and his contract isn’t too worrying; he’s simply being asked to do too much in a tough environment.
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Ryan Donato was a decent bottom-six secondary scorer, chipping in with 30 points in 82 games, but his $4 million cap hit feels a bit rich. It’s a similar story for Ilya Mikheyev. He’s a very handy third-line winger, but $4.75 million is a tad expensive for that role.
Colorado Avalanche
None: Sam Girard became redundant for the Avs following Sam Malinski’s breakout, but the Avalanche offloaded his $5 million AAV before the deadline. Gabriel Landeskog was on the border of meeting the criteria of “inefficient” value in 2025-26 (35 points in 60 games on a $7 million cap hit), but he still mostly delivered a capable top-six option in his first year back on top of all the intangibles he brings as the team’s captain.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-7.2 | $4,125,000 | 3 | |
0.0 | $5,500,000 | 3 |
Dante Fabbro: If this exercise included goalies, backup goaltender Elvis Merzlikins and his $5.4 million AAV would easily stand out as the team’s worst bang-for-buck contract. Among the skaters, Fabbro stands out as a questionable contract.
Fabbro was a revelation on the top pair with Zach Werenski in 2024-25, which prompted Columbus to sign him to a hefty four-year extension. However, he was quickly demoted from the top pair this year, and his results were alarming: Fabbro’s average ice time tumbled from 21:39 to 16:34, he produced only 11 points in 74 games, and the Blue Jackets had a minus-17 goal differential during his five-on-five shifts. Now he profiles as a $4.125 million third-pair defenseman.
Sean Monahan was outstanding as Columbus’ No. 1 center in 2024-25, scoring over a point per game. The 31-year-old veteran center’s production collapsed to 36 points in 78 games. He’s still an effective middle-six center, but at $5.5 million, the Blue Jackets will be hoping for a bit more value out of him next season.
Dallas Stars
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-4.3 | $3,250,000 | 1 |
Ilya Lyubushkin: Lyubushkin is a serviceable stay-at-home third-pair defender, but $3.25 million is overpriced for what he brings to the table.
Tyler Seguin didn’t meet the games played threshold to make this list because of his torn ACL, but his $9.85 million AAV contract, which expires in 2027, is a massive sum for a second-line caliber player.
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Detroit Red Wings
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-9.8 | $4,750,000 | 0 ($3.85M x 3 extension kicking in) | |
-6.7 | $5,100,000 | 2 | |
-7.5 | $2,900,000 | 1 | |
-5.8 | $3,200,000 | 2 |
Ben Chiarot: The Red Wings’ front office has failed to surround its talented core with a strong enough supporting cast. They haven’t gotten the best bang-for-buck out of quite a few veterans.
Chiarot would be a physical, stay-at-home third-pair defenseman on most quality teams, but he’s instead struggled under the weight of second-pair assignments.
Up front, J.T. Compher, Michael Rasmussen and Mason Appleton didn’t chip in with enough secondary offense relative to their cap hits.
Edmonton Oilers
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.8 | $9,250,000 | 4 | |
-8.2 | $3,850,000 | 7 | |
-6.7 | $3,400,000 | 0 ($7M x 7 extension kicking in) |
Darnell Nurse: You all knew this one was coming. Nurse is an athletic, mistake-prone No. 4/5-caliber defenseman who’s unfortunately paid like a bona fide No. 1.
Trent Frederic was flat-out one of the NHL’s worst full-time forwards in 2025-26. He produced only seven points in 74 games, averaged fourth-line minutes, and the Oilers were outscored 32-18 during his five-on-five shifts. His contract, which astonishingly has seven years remaining, is an albatross.
Jake Walman was terrific down the stretch and in the playoffs for the Oilers in 2024-25, but his game took an inexplicably giant step back this season. Walman earned only 43.6 percent of scoring chances and the Oilers surrendered 3.56 goals against per 60 with him on the ice, which was one of the worst marks in the league.
Walman was hampered by injuries, so that’s part of the story, but in any case Edmonton needs dramatically better results from him moving forward, considering his seven-year, $49 million extension kicks in next season.
Oh, and all this doesn’t even count Tristan Jarry, who is one of the league’s most overpaid netminders.
Florida Panthers
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.4 | $6,100,000 | 7 | |
5.1 | $8,000,000 | 7 | |
3.7 | $7,000,000 | 7 |
Aaron Ekblad: Big-picture, Ekblad’s $6.1 million cap hit is still a team-friendly number. Ekblad’s underlying numbers took a significant hit in 2025-26, but I fully expect those two-way metrics to rebound next season once Aleksander Barkov returns to the lineup — Ekblad’s pair shares a ton of minutes with the Barkov line. Just chalk this one up as an off year.
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Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe are slightly overpaid relative to their regular-season contributions, but it doesn’t matter because both are extremely clutch in the playoffs.
The real killer was Sergei Bobrovsky — he slumped to an .877 save percentage despite his $10 million cap hit.
Los Angeles Kings
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
5.4 | $11,000,000 | 1 | |
-6.8 | $4,500,000 | 3 | |
-3.7 | $4,000,000 | 2 | |
4.8 | $7,875,000 | 3 |
Drew Doughty: Doughty is still a solid top-four contributor, but at 36, it’s been a few years since he’s even come close to living up to his $11 million AAV, which pays him to be an elite, Norris-caliber defenseman. The offense in particular is in decline, as he produced only 23 points in 72 games.
Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin (to a lesser extent) were head-scratching free-agent signings last summer, and those deals don’t look any better a year later. They’re bottom-pair quality defensemen paid like true middle-of-the-lineup drivers.
The Kings will be hoping to get slightly more out of Kevin Fiala next year. Fiala scored 35 goals in 2024-25, but he was only on pace to hit 26, in addition to softer two-way play-driving numbers, before he went down with a season-ending injury.
Minnesota Wild
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
2.0 | $7,570,000 | 1 | |
-3.8 | $4,000,000 | 2 | |
-1.3 | $4,350,000 | 3 |
Jared Spurgeon: The Wild’s books are in pretty good shape, as the inefficient contracts on this list are all slight overpayments rather than true problems.
Spurgeon makes top-pair money at $7.575 million (30th highest cap hit among defensemen in 2025-26), but at 36, he’s now a second-pair caliber player.
Marcus Foligno doesn’t drive enough offense to fully live up to his $4 million cap hit (13 points in 56 games), but this is still a passable deal because of his size/physicality, defensive acumen and leadership.
Jake Middleton endured a down year, especially in the playoffs, where he emerged as a massive second-pair liability when Jonas Brodin went down with an injury.
Montreal Canadiens
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-4.3 | $6,500,000 | 1 | |
-5.6 | $5,500,000 | 1 | |
3.5 | $9,500,000 | 7 |
Brendan Gallagher: He’s had a tremendous career in Montreal, but Father Time is catching up to him. The feisty 34-year-old winger scored just seven goals in 73 games at his $6.5 million cap hit and was a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs.
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Patrik Laine didn’t play enough games to qualify for this list, otherwise his $8.7 million cap hit would have surely ranked No. 1.
Josh Anderson is a legitimately valuable player who can chip in with about 15 goals per year on top of his speed and physicality, but $5.5 million is, of course, a premium to be paying to a bottom-six winger.
Noah Dobson was a strong fit on Montreal’s back end and excelled playing in very difficult defensive matchups. This trade was well worth it for the Canadiens. The reason he landed on this list is that he was tied for the sixth-highest cap hit among all NHL defensemen this past season, and his underlying numbers didn’t reflect that kind of elite impact; Dobson drove 46.2 percent of scoring chances during his five-on-five minutes. This $9.5 million AAV will look far better as the cap continues rising and as more top defensemen eventually pass him on the league’s pay scale.
Nashville Predators
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.4 | $7,000,000 | 5 | |
-3.5 | $5,500,000 | 3 | |
-3.8 | $5,500,000 | 3 | |
5.4 | $9,059,000 | 2 | |
-8.9 | $2,750,000 | 1 | |
-5.8 | $3,150,000 | 0 (UFA) |
Brady Skjei: The Predators have made several moves for veterans over the last couple of years, many of which haven’t panned out.
Skjei performed significantly better compared to his first year in Nashville, but his offensive and defensive numbers are still fairly average across the board. He isn’t the true needle-mover you expect when you pay a defenseman $7 million.
Nicolas Hague is a capable player, but $5.5 million is a lot to pay for a No. 4/5-caliber defenseman.
Jonathan Marchessault potted only 12 goals in 62 games, yet he’s being paid like a bona fide second-line scorer.
Roman Josi landed here because his defensive metrics have fallen off hard during the last two years. However, he deserves a pass because he still drives offense at an elite level, he’s dealt with injuries/health concerns the last couple of years and he’s 36, so it’s only understandable that his play is dipping a bit.
Nick Perbix and Erik Haula were OK depth players on slightly overpriced cap hits.
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New Jersey Devils
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
1.7 | $9,000,000 | 6 | |
-7.4 | $4,000,000 | 1 | |
4.7 | $8,800,000 | 5 | |
-6.0 | $3,400,000 | 2 | |
5.3 | $9,000,000 | 2 |
Luke Hughes: The youngest Hughes brother has plenty of talent, and at 22 he still has plenty of time to take meaningful steps in his game. However, his $9 million cap hit was the 12th highest mark among all NHL defensemen this season, and the reality is he’s not close to being a true No. 1 defender. Hughes scored 35 points in 68 games and his defensive consistency remains a work in progress.
Timo Meier’s $8.8 million AAV pays him to be a high-end first-line winger, but his actual impact (44 points in 74 games) has been second-line caliber for the last few years in New Jersey.
Dougie Hamilton is still a very effective top-four contributor, but similar to Hughes, he simply isn’t a true No. 1.
New York Islanders
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-5.7 | $5,000,000 | 0 ($4.85M x 3) | |
0.9 | $6,150,000 | 4 | |
-5.5 | $3,500,000 | 2 | |
6.3 | $8,500,000 | 5 | |
1.6 | $5,750,000 | 3 |
Jean-Gabriel Pageau: This exercise doesn’t include players traded midseason; otherwise, Ondrej Palát would have been the runaway No. 1. Palát produced just one goal and four assists in 29 games with the Isles and has another year remaining at a $6 million AAV.
The rest of the Islanders’ contracts are mostly fine. Dom’s model dinged Pageau hard for his poor underlying metrics this year — his expected goal share collapsed from 54.4 percent in 2024-25 to just 45.6 percent this season. New York will surely want better two-way results than that, but Pageau is still a solid third-line center who’s elite in the face-off circle, trustworthy defensively and can chip in with 35-40 points in a given year. $5 million is a tad overpriced for that, yes, but it’s not by an egregious margin.
Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech are steady but aging veterans. They’re still decent players, but Pulock in particular hasn’t lived up to the full freight of his $6.15 million AAV in quite some time.
New York Rangers
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
4.7 | $8,000,000 | 4 | |
-3.8 | $4,100,000 | 4 | |
-9.0 | $2,200,000 | 0 (RFA) |
J.T. Miller: GM Chris Drury acquired Miller to be an offensive game-breaker and No. 1 center. Miller fell well below those standards; the 33-year-old captain’s 53 points in 68 games may not seem terrible on paper, but the real killer is how decisively he lost his matchups. With Miller on the ice at even strength, the Rangers had a minus-24 goal differential.
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Overall, the model graded his impact closer to that of a $6 million player than an $8 million one, which is concerning because he still has four years left on his deal.
Will Borgen would be a solid No. 4/5 on the right team, but in New York, he looks like an overpaid third-pair defenseman.
Braden Schneider’s development, meanwhile, has disappointingly stagnated. The No. 19 pick in 2020 stepped into a bigger role this year, averaging a career-high 20:27 per game, but his two-way results crumbled under heavier usage. Schneider drove just 43.3 percent of expected goals during his five-on-five shifts this season, which was the worst mark among Rangers defensemen.
Ottawa Senators
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-3.2 | $4,050,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
4.1 | $8,000,000 | 2 | |
-2.0 | $4,275,000 | 2 |
Nick Jensen: Ottawa’s cap situation was strong, with no glaringly bad contracts. Jensen looked a step behind at times defensively in his first season back from hip surgery, but his contract expires this summer.
Thomas Chabot is an indispensable second-pair driver for this Senators blue line. He might be a tad overpaid by about $1 million, but it’s certainly not by a consequential amount.
Fabian Zetterlund is a decent middle-six winger, even though his production (33 points in 82 games) is a bit light relative to his $4.28 million cap hit.
Philadelphia Flyers
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
1.2 | $7,750,000 | 4 | |
7 | $8,750,000 | 7 |
Sean Couturier: Couturier still carries a lot of value as a shutdown center with above-average defensive metrics and excellent faceoff numbers, but his offense has consistently lagged his steep $7.75 million cap hit since the severe back injuries he suffered near the start of this decade. Couturier scored 36 points in 78 games. Ultimately, he’s an effective third-line center making high-end top-six center money.
Travis Konecny was one of the 20 highest-paid wingers in the league this season, but his performance didn’t quite live up to that billing. He dropped from 76 points in 2024-25 to 68 this season and had an underwhelming playoff run, scoring just one goal in 10 games.
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Pittsburgh Penguins
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-1.2 | $6,100,000 | 2 |
Kris Letang: Ryan Graves and Kevin Hayes would have easily topped this inefficient contracts list if they had met the minimum games played threshold. Graves found himself in the AHL at a point this season despite still having three years left at a $4.5 million cap hit. Hayes was a healthy scratch at many points, but his contract is off the books at the end of this season, and the Penguins received a second-round pick to take his inefficient deal on from the Blues anyway.
With those two out of the equation, Letang was the only Penguin who substantially underperformed his contract.
The 39-year-old’s defensive gaffes are becoming increasingly frequent (especially noticeable in the playoffs), and his offense is respectable (34 points in 74 games), but it doesn’t move the needle as prolifically anymore. The model valued Letang closer to $4 million this year rather than his actual $6.1 million AAV.
San Jose Sharks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-10.8 | $3,641,666 | 1 | |
-2.5 | $6,500,000 | 1 |
Barclay Goodrow: The Sharks have so much cap space, and the only overpriced deals on their books have so little remaining term, that they’re positioned well financially moving forward.
It’s debatable whether Goodrow should even be an everyday NHL player at this stage in his career. The gritty 33-year-old forward produced just 12 points in 82 games, but more importantly, the Sharks got dominated most of the time he was on the ice. The Sharks controlled just under 41 percent of shots and were outscored 32-15 during Goodrow’s five-on-five shifts.
San Jose used Dmitry Orlov in a top-pair role out of necessity, and the results weren’t pretty. He’d still be a helpful player further down the lineup in a more insulated role, but he was clearly overmatched this season having to play at such heavy, hard minutes.
Nick Leddy and his $4 million AAV would have also ended up on this list if he met the games played threshold, but it’s a moot point anyway because his contract expires this summer.
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Seattle Kraken
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-9.6 | $6,250,000 | 5 | |
-7.2 | $5,250,000 | 3 | |
-10.4 | $4,500,000 | 3 | |
-0.8 | $7,142,857 | 5 | |
0.0 | $7,350,000 | 1 | |
-5.0 | $4,600,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
-7.3 | $3,475,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
0.1 | $5,500,000 | 0 (UFA) |
Chandler Stephenson: Seattle has a remarkable number of overpaid middle-class contributors in the $4.5-7.5 million AAV neighborhood.
Stephenson’s 49 points in 80 games don’t seem too terrible on the surface, but he’s an empty-calorie point producer who drags the team down as a two-way liability. Stephenson’s defensive metrics were some of the worst in the league, with Seattle only controlling an alarming 32.1 percent of high-danger chances during his five-on-five shifts. That’s the worst mark among all NHL forwards who played at least 600 five-on-five minutes this season.
Adam Larsson, Ryan Lindgren and Jamie Oleksiak were all top-four defensemen in their respective primes, but each has slowed down with age and injuries. Larsson has been a fixture on Seattle’s top pair but the results are getting worse: Seattle controlled just 42.7 percent of expected goals in his five-on-five minutes, which is the worst mark of Larsson’s career, and 45.8 percent of actual goals.
Vince Dunn and Brandon Montour are in a slightly different boat because they’re still impactful players who are much closer to fair value on their contracts. The issue, though, is that neither is an elite offensive driver and their two-way underlying metrics both left room for improvement.
Eeli Tolvanen is in a similar boat as Stephenson, where his raw offensive production looks fine (36 points in 78 games), but the Kraken have gotten crushed from a two-way perspective during his minutes, which severely drags down his overall value.
Jaden Schwartz’s offense slowed down considerably after a 26-goal campaign in 2024-25, as he mustered only 11 goals and 15 assists in 50 games this season at a $5.5 million cap hit.
St. Louis Blues
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
0 | $8,000,000 | 5 | |
-3.5 | $4,000,000 | 0 ($6.1M x 3 extension kicking in) |
Pavel Buchnevich: Buchnevich is unfortunately a shadow of the player he was in his prime. It was only a few years ago that the 31-year-old was a top-line stud who could score at around the point-per-game mark and drive excellent two-way results.
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This year, Buchnevich’s production dipped to 48 points in 81 games. He was also a major drag from a play-driving perspective — Robert Thomas’ metrics were significantly better across the board without Buchnevich on his line compared to with him.
Jordan Binnington would have absolutely been on this list if we included goalies; he pitched a woeful .873 save percentage despite carrying a $6 million cap hit.
Cam Fowler was a top-four game-changer for the Blues in 2024-25 and a major catalyst behind the team making the playoffs. He’s still a decent player, but he took a noticeable step back this season. St. Louis surrendered more shots, scoring chances and goals against than they created during Fowler’s minutes.
The Blues deserve credit for selling Brayden Schenn for a strong package at the deadline because his all-around impact has been closer to a third-line center level, which makes his $6.5 million AAV seem a bit inflated.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-0.9 | $8,000,000 | 3 | |
-3.2 | $5,400,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
7.2 | $9,500,000 | 4 | |
-1.0 | $5,200,000 | 5 |
Victor Hedman: Hedman’s game has gradually been slowing down for a while, but his play took an enormous hit this year in a challenging, injury-plagued campaign. He went from scoring 66 points in 79 games last year to only 17 points in 33 games.
Most tellingly, his average ice time collapsed from 23:05 to 18:52, which included some stretches on the third pair. Hedman earned just 48.6 percent of expected goals at five-on-five, which is the worst mark he’s posted since his rookie season all the way back in 2009-10. The Lightning will be crossing their fingers that this was just an off year because of injuries.
At $5.4 million, Oliver Bjorkstrand was paid to produce like a legitimate top-six winger but his numbers were pedestrian as he scored 32 points in 80 games.
Brayden Point had an off year due to multiple injuries as he went from scoring 42 goals in 77 games in 2024-25 to only 18 in 63 games this season. The model rated Point’s impact closer to the $7.1 million range; Tampa will be hoping he can rebound to his usual elite center form next season.
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Toronto Maple Leafs
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
9.8 | $13,250,000 | 2 | |
-2.4 | $7,500,000 | 4 | |
8.9 | $11,500,000 | 6 | |
0.9 | $7,750,000 | 5 | |
-9.0 | $3,750,000 | 2 | |
-5.3 | $3,485,000 | 1 | |
-9.2 | $2,100,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
-1.0 | $4,513,102 | 4 |
Morgan Rielly: The Leafs had a lot of overpriced contracts this season, but I’d expect a few players on this list to bounce back next year. Nearly every player’s underlying metrics tanked in 2025-26 as it became increasingly obvious that Craig Berube’s playing style wasn’t working, with a detrimental impact on various players’ performance.
Rielly has long been a questionable contract regardless of coaching effect, though. The 32-year-old posted some of the worst defensive metrics in the league despite playing fairly sheltered matchups with a high dosage of offensive-zone starts. Combine that with his declining offense (36 points in 78 games) and you get a player that simply isn’t living up to his pay grade as the team’s highest-paid defenseman.
Auston Matthews was the second-highest-paid player in the NHL this season, yet his all-around impact was nowhere close to the level of a top-five player. Matthews slumped to 53 points in 60 games and his two-way numbers were the worst of his career as the Leafs controlled only 46 percent of shot attempts with him on the ice.
William Nylander produced at a 99-point pace so it’s hard to be too critical of his game, but his defensive numbers were quite soft and his overall game still left more to be desired considering he was the fourth-highest-paid winger in the NHL this season.
Matthew Knies’s offensive production was strong (66 points in 79 games), but he’s another player whose play-driving numbers cratered this year, on top of the injuries he battled through. I fully expect a bounce-back and if anything, his $7.75 million cap hit feels like a bargain for how high his potential is.
Max Domi is simply an odd fit for the roster — he isn’t productive enough to be a top-six contributor and his woeful defensive impact means he doesn’t fit the bill of an ideal bottom-six forward either.
The Brandon Carlo acquisition has been a train wreck so far, especially with how much the Leafs surrendered to acquire him.
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Jake McCabe’s two-way numbers slipped this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they rebound next year under a new coach.
Utah Mammoth
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
2.4 | $7,700,000 | 4 | |
-0.9 | $6,000,000 | 2 | |
4.4 | $8,500,000 | 5 | |
-9.7 | $2,500,000 | 2 | |
-3.5 | $4,250,000 | 4 | |
-10.2 | $2,000,000 | 0 (UFA) |
JJ Peterka: The Mammoth had more inefficient contracts this season than I expected, though fortunately none of them are true anchors.
Peterka disappointed in Year 1 with Utah, as his production dropped from 68 points in 2024-25 to only 47 points. He also went pointless in six playoff games. A $7.7 million cap hit should mean first-line production, but Peterka’s actual value was closer to a low-end second liner.
On the back end, Utah’s top pair of Mikhail Sergachev and Sean Durzi didn’t fully live up to their cap hits. Sergachev scored 59 points but gave back a lot of that value defensively, as the Mammoth surrendered 2.84 expected goals against per 60 during his five-on-five shifts. Overall, Sergachev played closer to the level of a No. 2 defenseman rather than a true No. 1, which he’s paid to be.
Brandon Tanev scored zero goals and just three assists in 56 games. More concerningly, the Mammoth were outscored by a wide margin during Tanev’s even-strength minutes.
Jack McBain is a steady, physical bottom-six center with a huge 6-foot-4 frame, but Dom’s model felt $4.25 million was a tad rich relative to his actual on-ice impact in 2025-26.
Vancouver Canucks
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
1.0 | $11,600,000 | 6 | |
-3.9 | $7,250,000 | 6 | |
-6.4 | $5,500,000 | 5 | |
-5.6 | $5,125,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
-0.6 | $5,500,000 | 5 |
Elias Pettersson: Pettersson limped to 51 points in 74 games. He was stuck with inferior wingers on his line, but that alone can’t explain the colossal drop-off in his play. Pettersson’s $11.6 million cap hit is commensurate with a superstar, but in reality, he’s been a second-line caliber center over the last two years.
Marcus Pettersson struggled mightily this season as the Canucks controlled only 44.7 percent of expected goals and had a minus-28 goal differential during his five-on-five minutes. However, every Canucks defender except Filip Hronek was drowning in Adam Foote’s system, so a large chunk of his issues are likely environment-related rather than his individual ability falling off a cliff.
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Evander Kane was a disastrous acquisition, scoring only 13 goals despite being fed top-six minutes throughout the entire season.
Brock Boeser and Jake DeBrusk both underperformed their cap hits by modest amounts, largely due to their weak defensive numbers.
All of this doesn’t even factor in how scary Thatcher Demko and Kevin Lankinen’s contracts looked this season.
Vegas Golden Knights
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-10.4 | $2,500,000 | 2 |
Keegan Kolesar: If this exercise included goalies, Adin Hill would have been by far Vegas’ worst contract. Hill had a nightmare campaign where he lost the starter’s job; he has another five years left at $6.25 million annually.
Besides Hill, Vegas had a very clean cap sheet. Kolesar endured an uncharacteristically challenging season — he only produced 17 points and Vegas was outscored by 19 goals with him on the ice at five-on-five — but he’s got a long enough track record as a premium fourth-liner that we should expect him to rebound next season.
Washington Capitals
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
6.4 | $9,500,000 | 0 (UFA) | |
0.6 | $5,750,000 | 4 |
Alex Ovechkin: Washington had far fewer inefficient contracts than you’d expect from a team that missed the playoffs. Ovechkin’s production slightly lagged what you’d expect from a $9 million player, but it’s completely reasonable given he’s 40.
Matt Roy’s underlying metrics were a tad soft, as the Caps allowed slightly more shots and expected goals than they generated during his minutes, but he’s still a rock-solid second-pair defenseman, even if it’s at a slightly inflated $5.75 million AAV.
Winnipeg Jets
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-1.7 | $7,000,000 | 5 | |
-5.7 | $3,250,000 | 0 (UFA) |
Neal Pionk: Pionk had a down year where he was hampered by injuries. His offensive production fell to only three goals and nine assists in 51 games. Pionk also struggled to drive play, earning only 42.9 percent of high-danger chances at five-on-five.
Gustav Nyquist was a black hole offensively, scoring only one goal in 51 games.
Jonathan Toews would have landed on this inefficient contracts list as well if this exercise had factored bonuses in.
Cap data courtesy Spotrac and PuckPedia. Analytics courtesy Natural Stat Trick
