President Donald Trump signed the memorandum of understanding ending his war with Iran while attending a dinner hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in the Palace of Versailles last night. The symbolism of the location did not go unnoticed, given that the 1919 Treaty of Versailles ended World War I with Germany’s unconditional surrender and ultimately set the stage for Hitler’s rise.
The U.S.-Iran deal is not on the same scale of historical significance, nor is it quite so lopsided. And because of how much of its ultimate outcome is conditioned on the 60-day follow-on negotiations that will now begin, as well as on an end to Israeli military operations in Lebanon, it is very possible that the agreement will be short-lived. But now that it has been made public, a more detailed analysis than when I last wrote about it is possible. And judging from its terms, it is an exceptionally favorable agreement for Iran.
This begins with the terms of the deal that will be set in motion now that it has been formally signed. Iran’s only immediate obligation is to end its de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by removing any mines it has placed in the maritime chokepoint and allowing free passage without any fees for 60 days. In return, the U.S. will end its naval blockade of Iranian ports and, critically, waive all relevant sanctions on Iranian oil sales.
