Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate race: Poll

Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) holds a 3-point edge over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the Lone Star State’s Senate race, according to a new poll conducted by the Texas Pulse.

The survey, released Tuesday, found that 47 percent of 807 respondents said they would vote for Talarico if the election were held now. Forty-four percent said they would vote for Paxton, while 2 percent said they would back another candidate. 

Talarico’s lead, though, is within the margin of error of 4 percentage points. Texas Pulse, a joint partnership between the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and ReconMR, conducted the poll from June 1-4.

While no Democrats said they would vote for Paxton, 9 percent of Republicans said they would back Talarico. After President Trump backed him, Paxton defeated incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the primary runoff last month, with Talarico extending an olive branch to the four-term senator’s supporters after he lost. 

“We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service. To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign,” the state representative wrote on social platform X. 

Among independent respondents to the Texas Pulse poll, Talarico holds an 18-point lead over Paxton. Four percent of independents said they would vote for neither candidate.

With less than five months before Election Day, Talarico and Paxton have traded barbs since the latter captured the GOP nomination. Last week, Talarico called out his opponent for various ethical lapses.

“Call me old-fashioned, but a man takes responsibility,” Talarico told a crowd. “He upholds his commitments to his family and his neighbors, and he does what’s right even when no one is watching.”

“Here’s what real men don’t do,” he added. “They don’t lie and cheat their way through life. They don’t enrich themselves by stealing from other people. And they don’t sell their soul to the highest bidder.”

In 2015, Paxton was indicted on felony charges in a securities fraud case. Republicans in the Texas House later impeached him in 2023, with the Texas Senate acquitting him.

Paxton’s estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R), also accused him of infidelity during divorce proceedings last year.

The Republican candidate, meanwhile, has attacked Talarico for his support of transgender Americans and accused him of being soft on immigration and crime policy. 

During an interview on Fox News last week, Paxton even questioned the religious beliefs of Talarico — a Presbyterian seminarian.

“I don’t think he understands Christianity in any form or fashion,” the state attorney general said on “Hannity.”

As of the end of March, Talarico’s campaign had roughly $7.5 million more cash on hand than Paxton’s, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The Democrat also said last month that his campaign brought in more than $3 million in the 24 hours after his Republican opponent secured the nomination over Cornyn.

But last week, Paxton filed paperwork with the FEC to set up a joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). The NRSC previously spent millions to boost Cornyn and bash Paxton during the primary.