The US consumer is still holding up but this chart should not be read too quickly Despite the surge in petrol-related spending, both discretionary and non-discretionary spending have remained relatively stable. That matters, because petrol almost works like an immediate tax on disposable income. But we need to be careful as the “petrol” line measures spending in nominal terms, not consumption in volume. If petrol prices rise sharply, fuel spending automatically increases, even if households are not buying significantly more litres. This chart mainly shows that they are paying much more for it.
The same logic applies to the rest of consumption. Seeing discretionary spending still growing year-on-year may give the impression of a very resilient consumer but part of that increase may simply come from higher prices. In real volume terms, the underlying trend is probably less impressive. This remains the main difficulty when reading consumption data in an inflationary environment as households can spend more dollars without necessarily consuming more goods and services.
The genuinely reassuring point, for now, is that the petrol shock does not yet seem to be spreading massively to other categories of spending.
*Link: https://ft.com/content/60c7a1ea-9b8a-4f11-b3cb-109fade74e48?syn-25a6b1a6=1…