I’m the C.E.O. of Goldman Sachs. The A.I. Job Apocalypse Is Overblown.

In conversations with hundreds of business leaders over the past few months, I’ve seen a sharp divide in their views of artificial intelligence. One camp sees a “job apocalypse” and mass unemployment ahead; the other sees a great leap forward for society.

Put me in the second camp — with a few caveats. Will A.I. disrupt the labor market? Absolutely. This transition, like other significant moments in our history, will entail new challenges, especially as A.I. separates labor from productivity in magnitudes we haven’t seen before. But the United States has a long track record of creating new jobs in response to disruption, from the electrification of the 1900s to the digital revolution of the 1990s; I don’t see any reason to think this dynamic will stop now.

There’s no question A.I. will reshape our everyday lives. Goldman Sachs’s economists estimate that, over the next decade, A.I. may automate 25 percent of current work hours. While it’s difficult to see how people in hands-on professions like food preparation, construction or services will be affected, people in white-collar jobs, among them accountants, bankers and lawyers, will likely see many of their tasks automated. According to one Stanford study, in the occupations most susceptible to greater automation, such as software engineering or customer service, entry-level employment has already declined by 16 percent relative to the least-exposed roles.

But when you look at jobs or sectors less relevant to automation, the picture changes. Our economists estimate that the growing demand for data centers has created more than 200,000 construction jobs since 2022. While A.I. eliminates jobs in some sectors, it may lead to job growth in others. Goldman Sachs may need fewer people in regulatory reporting or client onboarding, freeing us up to hire more bankers, traders and asset managers who are interacting with clients constantly.

Of course, we can’t dismiss the human cost of such disruption. The Industrial Revolution raised living standards only after society endured the hardships of grueling labor in mills and mines and the fetid slums that came with rapid urbanization. In recent decades, manufacturing employment has declined significantly owing to automation and global outsourcing. This caused enormous hardship for many families and communities across America such as Gary, Ind., and Greenville, S.C.

But for all those challenges, I keep bumping up against this reality: Standards of living for a vast majority of Americans are significantly higher than they used to be. When I was born in 1962, the average American adult didn’t have air-conditioning, but as air-conditioner prices dropped, nearly all of us got cool. In the 1950s, only a few large corporations, like IBM, had computers; now some 90 percent of American adults walk around with a supercomputer in their hand. In 1900, global life expectancy at birth was 32 years old; today, it’s over 70.

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