As we inch closer to the 2026 NHL Draft, I surveyed six NHL scouts and executives to get a better sense of how the top of the board might actually unfold. I didn’t ask them for their personal player rankings; instead, I asked them to put on their general manager hats and project how they see the top-10 picks shaking out.
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Here’s the consensus pick at each spot based on the lists they provided to The Athletic. A table showing the full panel results is located at the bottom of the story.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
While predicting McKenna to go first feels like a foregone conclusion, the industry isn’t completely sold that he’s the undisputed best player in the class. Of the evaluators I polled, three of the six didn’t have McKenna at No. 1 on their personal list, and more than one didn’t have him in their top two, even if every single one of them projects Toronto to take him. One evaluator preferred Ivar Stenberg, one had Caleb Malhotra and one said he was split between defensemen Chase Reid and Alberts Smits. The rationale for a lot of the voters is simply that McKenna fits at No. 1 as a player, and with his pedigree, it would be highly controversial for Toronto not to take him.
2. San Jose Sharks: Chase Reid, D, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Every evaluator gave Reid to the Sharks. The rationale here was straightforward: he fits the profile as the best defenseman in the draft and has the premium potential to run a first power-play unit. Beyond his pure talent, the scouts pointed to the Sharks’ desperate need for a high-end defenseman in their rebuild, especially given the tight, close group of prospects available in this tier of the draft. Like McKenna, not everyone had Reid as a top-two prospect in the draft on their personal list, but most had him either in that range or very close to it.
3. Vancouver Canucks: Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)
Almost every evaluator projected Malhotra to the Canucks, except for one scout who opted for North Dakota defenseman Keaton Verhoeff. Said one league source: “They are basically starting from scratch, and I would start that rebuild with a top-two-line center who projects to play a lot of important minutes.”
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4. Chicago Blackhawks: Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frölunda (SHL)
It has been a bit controversial in public mock drafts to project Stenberg to Chicago, but that is exactly how most NHL evaluators see the draft going — even if some (but not all) of them personally have Stenberg rated higher than No. 4 on their own boards. The slip for Stenberg here is less about his elite talent and more about positional premiums at the top of the draft. “Defense and centers always end up going higher than people expect,” said one source, explaining why teams might prioritize those positions over a winger.
5. New York Rangers: Keaton Verhoeff, D, North Dakota (NCAA)
The Rangers’ selection had a ton of variety. In fact, they got one vote for five different players from the evaluators surveyed. We ultimately land on Verhoeff here, a big, two-way defenseman toolkit who fits the mold of what the Rangers have tended to covet.
6. Calgary Flames: Carson Carels, D, Prince George (WHL)
Almost everyone expects Calgary to take a two-way defenseman at this spot, and Carels may not even last this long. As one evaluator noted when comparing Carels and Verhoeff to the Latvian-born Alberts Smits: “There’s certainly pressure there to take Canadians if it’s close.”
7. Seattle Kraken: Alberts Smits, D, Jukurit (Liiga)
Seattle unanimously had a defenseman projected to them by the panel. This is in part due to the sheer strength of this part of the draft being on the blue line, but it also perfectly aligns with Seattle’s glaring need for premium defensemen in their prospect pipeline. Smits brings a massive, physical presence that NHL front offices salivate over.
8. Winnipeg Jets: Daxon Rudolph, D, Prince Albert (WHL)
Continuing the run on defensemen is Rudolph to Winnipeg at No. 8. Some evaluators wondered if the Jets could break the run and go center here, with one source thinking Boston University’s Tynan Lawrence would make a lot of sense for them. We end up giving them Rudolph, the highly intelligent right-shot defenseman with NHL size who has absolutely lit up the WHL this season.
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9. Florida Panthers: Malte Gustafsson, D, HV71 (SHL)
This was another incredibly close vote for the No. 9 spot with Florida. The slight lean went to the fast-rising Gustafsson, who helped his case to go in the top 10 following his sterling U18 World Championships. There was also a lot of support at this pick for forward Wyatt Cullen; evaluators noted he belongs here purely on value, and highlighted the Panthers’ need for some high-end offensive skill in their pipeline.
10. Nashville Predators: Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
The top 10 ends with Lawrence to Nashville. Drafting him after selecting Brady Martin recently would be slightly redundant for the Predators’ pipeline, but Lawrence provides more speed than Martin. Evaluators view Lawrence as more of a pure center, and while he’s not as physical, his high-end skating makes him an ideal fit to round out the top 10.
