Latest: Post-Hormuz: Bullish or Bearish
"a hotter print now is something markets can look through, but inflation is accelerating higher for the June print, then we think the bond market will react negatively, e.g., yields higher." - JPM
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"The end of the rally could very likely be a Nasdaq level 1 “limit-down”-type trade, and/or with SMH -15% to -20% in a single-session, and slowly moving into Pretty Damn Real Delta" - Charie McElligott.
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Option expirations can remove stabilizing dealer hedging flows, especially in a call-heavy tape...
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"This was an incredibly valuable transition."
“I thought I’d seen it all with Covid […] but having seen jet fuel go up almost three times - this is much worse...”
Calls for complete reevaluation of the role Pakistan is playing...
"We have concluded that ..."
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Washington’s latest political punching bag...
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Reportedly happened in early April, just before Trump announced a ceasefire...
...stocks look past oil gains, bonds don't... momo melted up and silver soared...
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“We will continue to use the full range of tools available to protect our security and hold China to account for actions which undermine our safety and democratic values,”
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The World Health Organization is in financial trouble; time to roll out another exaggerated virus threat...
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While the US has righted course, the UK has just become more and more insane...
"We will talk with him about this day in Moscow."
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...the best thing Europeans can do now is to openly condemn Kiev and demand financial reparations for the damage caused.
Too perfect
Everything is perfect. Earnings are gliding higher in a near-perfect line, margins are exploding, and forecasts scream 20% growth. It’s clean, it’s smooth, it’s almost… too smooth. When the chart starts looking engineered, you have to ask: is this peak perfection?
Smashing the call button
Retail is back to doing what retail does best: smashing the call button while momentum goes vertical and breadth dies. We’ve got 2021-style option flow and 1999-style concentration. Rest assure that certain aspects of the "Bro Trade" is very crowded now.
What initially looked stretched keeps turning into an even more violent upside squeeze, as semis, AI, and call chasing continue forcing underexposed investors deeper into performance panic. Spot up, vol up, upside panic everywhere — and history suggests these post-shock melt-ups can stay irrational far longer than most expect.
Nobody owns enough silver. What started as a quiet breakout is now turning into a much more aggressive squeeze, with price, momentum, and volatility all accelerating at the same time while positioning still remains surprisingly subdued. Convexity was badly mispriced. The market is starting to realize it.
China tech is quietly starting to stir again just as earnings, AI momentum, and the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting line up as potential catalysts. Nobody really believes in this trade yet, but that is exactly what could make the squeeze violent if China tech finally starts catching up.
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