- Joined
- Dec 13, 2022
While I have been reading news about the Gulf War, I have also been paying attention to a viral outbreak on a cruise ship. While virus outbreaks on cruise ships, like viral outbreaks in China, are fairly common, this outbreak has some interesting qualities that raised some eyebrows. As time went on, the situation continued and continues to get worse.
TLDR: Reports of passengers becoming extremely sick and dying became a story about a Hantavirus with the ability to quickly spread between humans.
WHO (done it again):
Cruise ship with hantavirus outbreak to sail to Canary Islands (Archive)
BEACON (OSINT for diseases)
Hantavirus-related death in a 15-year-old patient in Chubut Province, Argentina; third case in a family cluster (Archive)
This story is unrelated to the ship, but it happened around the same time and possibly near the area where the first guy was.
Now about the Hantavirus itself
Hantavirus is a rodent borne virus that humans can get from messing with infected ratshit and normally cannot spread human to human. Well except for the Andes strain from south america, especially found in rural Argentina.... This outbreak is likely that strain or a new variant of it.
Of course other possibilities are not off the table, but I'll let people like Drain Todger handle that...
The Hantavirus has a very long incubation period, between 2-8 weeks, and causes symptoms that look like common influenza-like illnesses. However, these illnesses can rapidly worsen as the virus causes the immune system to overreact with a cytokine storm. It especially goes for the kidneys, lungs, and the digestive system.
A recent example is Gene Hackman's wife who had Hantavirus. She was sick-but-not-super-sick and then a few hours later had lungs full of fluid.
The big question is how contagious and containable is this new Hantavirus? How does it spread human to human? Fluids? Aerosol? Droplets? Feces? Did they get it from contaminated food? All of the above? Does it spread asymptotically and/or symptomatically? Can it infect rodents who can spread it back to humans? We don't know yet. Historically, Andes takes a long time to transfer enough of a viral load to infect another person, this strain seems to take a shorter amount of time.
Potential Super Spreader Event(s):
The biggest concern, is that the wife (case 2) traveled by air while she was sick. She possibly infected a lot of people, both on the plane and in the airports she went to. Complete and total containment failure but, to be fair, they didn't know. That is the danger of this thing, it takes forever to appear and seems like nothing until its something.
Ok while I'm typing this up, we have another infected individual who was on the cruise but at some point left the ship and is now in Switzerland. So another potential super spreader.
Bluewin.ch (idk some Swiss news site, I hope they are neutral)
First hantavirus case in Switzerland - man undergoing treatment in Zurich (Archive) His wife is not showing symptoms, yet. That yet is very important because if she gets sick....
Oh BTW, the Canary islands don't want the ship anymore. NBC (or Peacock)
Cruise ship at center of suspected deadly hantavirus outbreak refused permission to dock (Archive)
Oh and apparently a Frenchman who was not on the ship, but on the flight with the wife, tested positive for Hantavirus. Hopefully it is a false positive.
Alright that is enough. The situation is changing too fast.
This will either be the real deal or this will be another nothingburger with nothing in between. We will know in few weeks. Worst case scenario, few people are going to get sick and a few weeks after that, massive spread. Best case scenario, it peters out like Ebola or Monkeypox.
TLDR: Reports of passengers becoming extremely sick and dying became a story about a Hantavirus with the ability to quickly spread between humans.
WHO (done it again):
Hantavirus cluster linked to cruise ship travel, Multi-country (Archive)
BBC (The news one)Cruise ship with hantavirus outbreak to sail to Canary Islands (Archive)
BEACON (OSINT for diseases)
Hantavirus-related death in a 15-year-old patient in Chubut Province, Argentina; third case in a family cluster (Archive)
This story is unrelated to the ship, but it happened around the same time and possibly near the area where the first guy was.
The expedition vessel MV Hondius arrives in Argentina in late March, during peak hantavirus season. The ship leaves at the beginning of April with all passengers in good health.
Case 1) A 70 year old (old) passenger gets sick on April 6 and dies from rapid respiratory failure on April 11.
Case 2) On April 24 his wife feels sick and leaves the ship. She then travels by air to Johannesburg and becomes extremely ill during the flight. She throws up and collapses at Tambo international and later dies in a hospital on April 26.
Case 3) Also on April 24 another passenger on the ship starts to have pneumonia symptoms that worsen and is evacuated.
Case 4) On April 28 a female passenger becomes ill with pneumonia symptoms and passes away on May 2.
On May 4 viral testing of the third passenger and the body of the wife confirm it to be Hantavirus.
Cases 5, 6, 7) On May 5, three crewmembers of the ship, including the ships doctor, fall ill with similar symptoms.
Currently the ship is heading toward the Canary Islands where it is to be quarantined/decontaminated. Well they were, they don't want the plague ship anymore.
Case 8 ) On May 6 another man who was on the cruise, but left earlier, tested positive for Hantavirus and is being treated in Switzerland.
Case 1) A 70 year old (old) passenger gets sick on April 6 and dies from rapid respiratory failure on April 11.
Case 2) On April 24 his wife feels sick and leaves the ship. She then travels by air to Johannesburg and becomes extremely ill during the flight. She throws up and collapses at Tambo international and later dies in a hospital on April 26.
Case 3) Also on April 24 another passenger on the ship starts to have pneumonia symptoms that worsen and is evacuated.
Case 4) On April 28 a female passenger becomes ill with pneumonia symptoms and passes away on May 2.
On May 4 viral testing of the third passenger and the body of the wife confirm it to be Hantavirus.
Cases 5, 6, 7) On May 5, three crewmembers of the ship, including the ships doctor, fall ill with similar symptoms.
Currently the ship is heading toward the Canary Islands where it is to be quarantined/decontaminated. Well they were, they don't want the plague ship anymore.
Case 8 ) On May 6 another man who was on the cruise, but left earlier, tested positive for Hantavirus and is being treated in Switzerland.
Now about the Hantavirus itself
Hantavirus is a rodent borne virus that humans can get from messing with infected ratshit and normally cannot spread human to human. Well except for the Andes strain from south america, especially found in rural Argentina.... This outbreak is likely that strain or a new variant of it.
Of course other possibilities are not off the table, but I'll let people like Drain Todger handle that...
The Hantavirus has a very long incubation period, between 2-8 weeks, and causes symptoms that look like common influenza-like illnesses. However, these illnesses can rapidly worsen as the virus causes the immune system to overreact with a cytokine storm. It especially goes for the kidneys, lungs, and the digestive system.
A recent example is Gene Hackman's wife who had Hantavirus. She was sick-but-not-super-sick and then a few hours later had lungs full of fluid.
The big question is how contagious and containable is this new Hantavirus? How does it spread human to human? Fluids? Aerosol? Droplets? Feces? Did they get it from contaminated food? All of the above? Does it spread asymptotically and/or symptomatically? Can it infect rodents who can spread it back to humans? We don't know yet. Historically, Andes takes a long time to transfer enough of a viral load to infect another person, this strain seems to take a shorter amount of time.
Potential Super Spreader Event(s):
The biggest concern, is that the wife (case 2) traveled by air while she was sick. She possibly infected a lot of people, both on the plane and in the airports she went to. Complete and total containment failure but, to be fair, they didn't know. That is the danger of this thing, it takes forever to appear and seems like nothing until its something.
Ok while I'm typing this up, we have another infected individual who was on the cruise but at some point left the ship and is now in Switzerland. So another potential super spreader.
Bluewin.ch (idk some Swiss news site, I hope they are neutral)
First hantavirus case in Switzerland - man undergoing treatment in Zurich (Archive) His wife is not showing symptoms, yet. That yet is very important because if she gets sick....
Oh BTW, the Canary islands don't want the ship anymore. NBC (or Peacock)
Cruise ship at center of suspected deadly hantavirus outbreak refused permission to dock (Archive)
Oh and apparently a Frenchman who was not on the ship, but on the flight with the wife, tested positive for Hantavirus. Hopefully it is a false positive.
Alright that is enough. The situation is changing too fast.
This will either be the real deal or this will be another nothingburger with nothing in between. We will know in few weeks. Worst case scenario, few people are going to get sick and a few weeks after that, massive spread. Best case scenario, it peters out like Ebola or Monkeypox.
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