Latest: Iran War: What's Next For Markets
The biggest day of April, if not H1 2026, is almost here: on Wednesday we have not only the Fed, but also earnings from 4 of the Mag 7s - Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet - accounting for almost 20% of S&P market cap. Here's all you need to know.
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Squeeze is on as Bessent simultaneously declares US seeks to inflict permanent damage to Iran's oil infrastructure.
We share various views from across Goldman's Trading desk for insight on how to trade the FOMC decision:
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The future of our own society will be written by us.
BUILD THAT BALL(room)...
Annual Chat GPT-4o ‘inference’ water-use alone may exceed the drinking water needs of 12 million people...
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The committee said doctors are not following the evidence with regards to treating people with autism.
Northern Israel issued an alert just minutes before massive controlled explosion...
...war escalation, UAE's OPECxit, OpenAI's 'miss', Momo massacred, and CTAs are done...
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Californians deserve better and this November, they just might get it...
At its meeting tomorrow at 2pm - the last for Jerome Powell as Chair - the Fed will remain firmly on hold.
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“...a legacy of theft and lies..."
"This is a violation of the Immigration & Nationality Act..."
‘Espousing terrorist ideologies’ and ’expressing hatred for American values’ were cited as views that ‘warrant closer scrutiny’ from immigration officers...
"Fluctuations of hundreds of megawatts within seconds..."
"Better too early than too late when it comes to taking profits on EU oil equity longs..."
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"Objective: Provide liquidity, diversification, and a luxury estate for an Anthropic shareholder..."
Test routes could become commercial flight patterns for Joby Aviation’s electric air taxis, crossing Manhattan in less than 10 minutes, the company stated.
None of what is happening is an accident or happenstance...
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The semis move just blinked… after one of the most aggressive runs on record, SOX is starting to show the first signs of stress as momentum and volatility remain stretched. This isn’t a trend break, but a parabolic move feeling the strain… the easy part is over, and this is where things start to get messy.
Rates look calm on the surface… but the setup underneath is getting tight, with yields consolidating, oil feeding the move, and the long end drifting toward key levels. This isn’t calm, it’s compression… and with volatility quietly collapsing, it increasingly feels like rates vol is pricing perfection.
Oil just refuses to fade… every dip gets bought, the squeeze is building again, and the move is happening without the usual signs of stress in volatility. The market has looked through it, but with crude pushing higher, rates still linked, and the system still short barrels, that disconnect is starting to crack… oil isn’t the story, until it suddenly is.
The index is telling you things are quiet… single stocks are telling you the opposite, as volatility compresses at the top while dispersion keeps widening. Calm on the surface, tension underneath, and with vol still mispricing tails and dealers flipping short gamma on the upside, even small moves could get loud fast.
Markets tend to complicate things. In the end, it always comes back to the same thing. As Sam “Ace” Rothstein put it, after a detour in Vegas he wound up: “right back where I started… picking winners and making money” Strip away the noise; rates, geopolitics, recession scares; and you arrive at the same place… earnings.
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