These 40 Jobs May Be Replaced by AI. These 40 Probably Won’t

A new study measuring the use of generative artificial intelligence in different professions has just gone public, and its main message to people working in some fields is harsh. It suggests translators, historians, text writers, sales representatives, and customer service agents might want to consider new careers as pile driver or dredge operators, railroad track layers, hardwood floor sanders, or maids — if, that is, they want to lower the threat of AI apps pushing them out of their current jobs.

Why should anyone heed yet another of the myriad, sometimes conflicting reports in AI’s potential impacts on jobs? Because the researchers behind the new findings really know what they’re talking about. They all work for tech giant Microsoft, which is developing Copilot and related AI apps examined in the study. And those tools, the authors say, risk putting ticket agents and telemarketers out of work far sooner than orderlies and paving equipment operators.

The Microsoft study comes as debate continues about the employment threats AI may pose to millions of people in clerical, administrative, communications, marketing, and other jobs.

Executives of several tech companies, including AI developer Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, have alternatively cheered or warned about bots automating a wide range of work tasks, potentially eliminating up to half of all white-collar and entry-level jobs in the process. Other business leaders, notably serial entrepreneur Mark Cuban, believe the tech will generate even more new positions than it erases by assuming a lot of repetitive drudge work.

Microsoft’s new research doesn’t offer an opinion on the quantitative consequences on employment that AI will ultimately have. But it does provide clear indication of which 40 jobs are already using apps most frequently — and the contrasting 40 professions reflecting the tech’s lowest levels of penetration. The full text of their findings and the two rankings are available here.

These 40 jobs are most threatened by AI

1. Interpreters and Translators 
2. Historians
3. Passenger Attendants
4. Sales Representatives of Services
5. Writers and Authors
6. Customer Service Representatives
7. CNC Tool Programmers
8. Telephone Operators
9. Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks
10. Broadcast Announcers and Radio DJs
11. Brokerage Clerks
12. Farm and Home Management Educators
13. Telemarketers
14. Concierges
15. Political Scientists
16. News Analysts, Reporters, Journalists
17. Mathematicians
18. Technical Writers
19. Proofreaders and Copy Markers
20. Hosts and Hostesses
21. Editors
22. Business Teachers, Postsecondary
23. Public Relations Specialists
24. Demonstrators and Product Promoters
25. Advertising Sales Agents
26. New Accounts Clerks
27. Statistical Assistants
28. Counter and Rental Clerks
29. Data Scientists
30. Personal Financial Advisers
31. Archivists
32. Economics Teachers, Postsecondary
33. Web Developers
34. Management Analysts
35. Geographers
36. Models
37. Market Research Analysts 
38. Public Safety Telecommunicators
39. Switchboard Operators
40. Library Science Teachers

These 40 jobs are least threatened by AI

1. Phlebotomists
2. Nursing Assistants
3. Hazardous Materials Removal Workers
4. Helpers–Painters, Plasterers
5. Embalmers
6. Plant and System Operators, All Other
7. Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
8. Automotive Glass Installers and Repairers
9. Ship Engineers
10. Tire Repairers and Changers
11. Prosthodontists
12. Helpers–Production Workers
13. Highway Maintenance Workers
14. Medical Equipment Preparers
15. Packaging and Filling Machine Operators
16. Machine Feeders and Offbearers
17. Dishwashers
18. Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers
19. Supervisors of Firefighters
20. Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators
21. Ophthalmic Medical Technicians
22. Massage Therapists
23. Surgical Assistants
24. Tire Builders
25. Helpers–Roofers
26. Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators
27. Roofers
28. Roustabouts, Oil and Gas
29. Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
30. Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators
31. Logging Equipment Operators
32. Motorboat Operators
33. Orderlies
34. Floor Sanders and Finishers
35. Pile Driver Operators
36. Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators
37. Foundry Mold and Coremakers
38. Water Treatment Plant and System Operators
39. Bridge and Lock Tenders
40. Dredge Operators

The results were obtained by analyzing 200,000 “conversations between users and Microsoft Bing Copilot.” Researchers then matched those with “measurements of task success and scope of impact, [to] compute an AI applicability score for each occupation.” The jobs with the highest use rates tended to be office positions or other work communicating data or thoughts for specific business purposes.

“We find the highest AI applicability scores for knowledge work occupation groups such as computer and mathematical, and office and administrative support, as well as occupations such as sales whose work activities involve providing and communicating information,” the study says. “Additionally, we characterize the types of work activities performed most successfully, how wage and education correlate with AI applicability, and how real-world usage compares to predictions of occupational AI impact.”