BREAKING
• Phone contact between Araghchi and American officials has continued in recent days
• In the past 24 hours, firm messages have been conveyed from Washington: the United States will not change its position, is not rushing into a deal, and will not compromise on the nuclear issue
Three scenarios now being examined in Tehran:
• Maintaining the current situation and waiting for a U.S. move
• Conceding and reaching an agreement
• Deliberate escalation: targeting Gulf states or moves in the Strait of Hormuz
Shift in IRGC approach:
• Until now, they assessed Trump was under pressure to reach a deal and could be leveraged
• His tweets and conduct were interpreted as signs of weakness
• A reassessment is now underway: understanding that Trump is not rushing and does not intend to concede
Bottom line:
Iran is being forced to recalibrate in the face of a far more rigid U.S. position than expected.
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