The populations of Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, and to a lesser extent Spain, are expected to grow by 2100, despite a big drop on average across Europe, new figures from Eurostat reveal.
However the number of residents in the European Union is projected to drop by 53 million, or almost 12 percent, by the end of the century compared to 2025.
Last year, Eurostat predicted a 6 percent decline by the same date compared to 2022.
The new Eurostat analysis, which considers births, deaths and migration flows, points to a drop from about 452 million residents in 2025 to 399 million by 2100, after a peak of 453 million in 2029.
Population growth
For nine EU countries, as well as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, population numbers are however projected to rise until 2100.
The largest growth among EU member states – between 10 and 20 per cent – is expected in Ireland and Sweden. In Sweden, the number of deaths is expected to surpass that of births as of next year and continuously increase in the years to come, while net migration will peak around 2031 and decline thereafter.
In Spain, net migration (the difference between arrivals and departures) is currently higher than births and deaths, but will steeply decline until the beginning of the 2030s. The number of deaths is expected to peak around the mid-2060s.
In 18 EU countries the total population is projected to decline by 2100. The largest drops (more than 30 per cent) are expected in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, while there will be “modest” changes in France and Austria, Eurostat says.
In France, births and deaths will grow in a similar way until the mid-2030s, then births will decline compared to deaths. Net migration will decline until the mid-2030s and remain stable thereafter.
In Italy, the number of births will slightly increase until 2040 then decline. By the end of the 2050s deaths are expected to surpass births by 841,000 to 313,00, then decline to 650,000 by 2100.In Denmark, the number of births will be higher than deaths until 2027, after which the trend will reverse. Net migration will steeply decline until the mid-2030s and remain relatively stable afterwards.
In Norway, the natural population change is expected to remain positive (more births than deaths) until 2034, after which the number of deaths will sharply increase compared to births and net migration will slightly decline.
In Switzerland natural population change is expected to switch from positive to negative as of next year.
Biggest countries
Germany will remain the biggest EU country by population in 2100, despite an expected decline from 84 to 75 million residents.
France and Spain will follow, with France’s population projected to fall from 69 million in 2025 to 67 million by 2100, and Spain to grow from 49 million to almost 50 million.
Italy, currently the third biggest EU country by population, will become the fourth in 2100, with a projected drop from 59 to 45 million residents by 2100.
Ageing and migration
The overall trend is attributed to a “continuous negative natural change”, with more deaths than births, and the resulting “progressive ageing of the population”.
Over the period 2025 to 2100, Eurostat suggests that there will be some 253 million births and 410 million deaths, with a net reduction of 157 million people, and the increase of 104 million people due to net migration will only partially compensate for that.
“An initial positive natural population change, but an overall negative balance over the projections’ horizon” is expected for six EU countries (Sweden, Luxembourg, Ireland, Cyprus, Malta, Denmark), as well as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, Eurostat says.
“High and persistent positive net migration is the only factor contributing to population growth for those countries that are projected to grow… between 2025 to 2100,” Eurostat adds.
When it comes go age groups, the proportion of children, young people, and working-age people in the total EU population is expected to decline between 2025 and 2100, while the proportion of 65 and over is projected to increase.
The share of 80-year-olds and over, in particular, is expected to increase from 6 to 16 per cent.
By the end of the century the youngest populations are projected to be in Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Germany while the most ageing countries will be Lithuania, Malta, Cyprus, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Poland.
In its explanatory note, Eurostat says that “the projections should not be considered as forecasts, as they show what would happen… if the set of assumptions are held constant over the entire time horizon under consideration” and given that 2100 is far away, “statements about the likely future developments of the EU's population should be treated with caution and interpreted as only one of a range of possible demographic developments.”
Comments