This week there was yet another brief sliver of hope that this war would come to an end. Trump said that the war could end “very soon,” and Israel entered into a ten-day ceasefire with Hezbollah. The Iranians opened the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices dropped, and someone with impeccable timing yet again made hundreds of millions shorting oil. Once the markets closed on Friday, Trump said that “we’re going to have to start dropping bombs again.” Israel broke the ceasefire in Lebanon, and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is signaling a long war. He has asked for a $1.5 trillion dollar budget for the Pentagon, and the young men of America will be automatically registered for the draft starting in December. The Pentagon has asked Ford and General Motors to start manufacturing drones and munitions, which suggests that America is moving towards a war-time economy.

Congress continues in its dereliction of duty. The Senate has now failed four times to pass a resolution demanding that Trump seek Congressional approval to continue the Iran war. The House of Representatives failed by a theatrical one vote to pass the same resolution. Four Republicans abstained from voting, and Thomas Massie voted in favor. This forced the Democrats to sacrifice one of their own to deny the resolution, and Jared Golden (who does not plan to seek re-election) became the scapegoat.

Iran’s Trump card was its capacity to disrupt the global economy by depriving it twenty percent of its energy and one-third of its fertilizer. In ordering a blockade of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump has raised the ante. Who will blink first?