PERTH: The fallout from war between the United States, Israel and Iran has dominated global oil markets. And not just because the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20 per cent of global oil and gas, remains effectively closed to shipping traffic.

Deep uncertainty about how long the disruption will continue has added a persistent “risk premium” – an extra cost built into oil prices to account for the risk of disrupted supply.

Rising insurance costs, reduced ship traffic and longer transit routes avoiding the Middle East have all added further friction to global oil supply chains.

An optimist might say this will all be sorted out quickly and soon enough we will be back to “normal”. And oil prices have retreated back below US$100 per barrel this week, on renewed hopes of a peace deal. 

But they’re still elevated. Before war broke out in the Middle East, benchmark oil prices had hovered in the range of US$70 to US$80 a barrel since 2023. That’s near where they’ve sat, on average, in “normal” times for much of the past two decades.

But what if there is no way back to “normal”? What if the fundamental challenge now isn’t the short-term disruption in supply, but the realisation that the days of cheap oil may have come to an end? 

OIL’S INVISIBLE REACH

Higher oil prices have a ripple effect that typically starts at the fuel pump. Petrol, diesel and jet fuel are top of mind. Driving to work, moving goods and travelling all become more expensive. Many fertilisers, too, are petrochemical products. That means farming around the world is exposed to a shock.

But the list of goods that rely on oil and gas goes far beyond fuel and fertiliser. According to the US Department of Energy, petrochemicals (derived from oil and gas) are involved in the manufacturing of more than 6,000 everyday products.

In many cases, this is because petrochemicals are a key input in the production of plastic. But other products on the list may be surprising, such as aspirin, dishwashing liquid, toothpaste and dyes.

Building materials used in construction warrant a special mention. Asphalt, insulation, paint, pipes, membranes, fittings and other composite materials are mostly oil byproducts. Manufacturing bricks and many ceramic products is also gas-intensive.

Add transporting it all to the construction site, and the oil crisis becomes another headwind to housing affordability.

IS THIS THE END OF CHEAP OIL?

In 1999, an article in The Economist quoted Don Huberts, who was then head of Shell Hydrogen at oil company Royal Dutch/Shell: "The stone age did not end because the world ran out of stones, and the oil age will not end because we run out of oil."

True enough, but what about cheap oil? Can that come to an end?

The world has faced many oil shocks before, some for geopolitical reasons, others due to concerns demand would outstrip supply. But almost every time analysts predicted the world was about to run out of oil, price hikes were met with new discoveries, technological improvements and oil substitution.

Companies such as Chevron have pioneered new techniques, such as deepwater drilling. Extracting oil from shale through fracking unlocked new supplies, especially in the US. This helped the US become the world’s largest producer of crude oil in the late 2010s.

This time, however, production facilities across the Middle East have suffered major damage, which may take years to repair. The central question is no longer whether oil exists in the ground, but whether it can be supplied cheaply, reliably and at scale again.

JUST IN TIME VS JUST IN CASE

Until 2020, global economies largely operated in “just-in-time” mode. You only take what you need, when you need it, assuming it will always be there for you. This system works efficiently – and is cheap – until something goes wrong.

Lessons from the pandemic brought back the idea of “just in case”, particularly as the war in Ukraine caused further disruption. “Just in case” means that you keep more than you need, so if someone closes the tap, you can keep all else running. However, this creates new costs. 

To keep more oil and gas than you need, you don’t just have to pay for the extra stock. Countries also have to build new storage and infrastructure, and pay more in insurance.

You refine your management to make sure it all works properly, so that the extra cost added is part of a larger contingency plan. But someone must foot this bill.

HOW THE WORLD WILL HAVE TO ADAPT

The end of cheap oil does not mean the end of oil use. It means higher costs embedded throughout daily life.

Pressure on governments to subsidise fuel, expand stockpiles and intervene in markets can mean larger budget deficits. Households will have less money left for non-essentials as the cost of living bites even harder.

We will adapt, as we are already beginning to see in the current crisis. There are signs people around the world are travelling less, using more public transport and electrifying cars and homes.

Industries may invest more in efficiency and green energy not out of environmental idealism, but cost necessity.

But there may still be a rocky road ahead, and we may never get back to “normal”. Adaptation does not end oil dependence; it reshapes it. The challenge is managing a world in which oil remains essential, but is no longer cheap, stable or politically neutral.

Flavio Macau is Associate Dean for the School of Business and Law at Edith Cowan University. This commentary first appeared on The Conversation.

LONDON: UK opposition leaders Thursday (Apr 16) called on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign after the government confirmed that an associate of Jeffrey Epstein failed a background security check before becoming envoy to Washington.

Starmer has faced repeated questions about his judgment in appointing Peter Mandelson, who was sacked last year only months into the post over his ties to the late convicted US sex offender Epstein.

The opposition renewed calls for Starmer's resignation after an investigation by The Guardian newspaper discovered Mandelson had failed an initial background check - later confirmed by the government.

Opposition right-wing Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch wrote on X that "Starmer has betrayed our national security. He should go".

Leader of the centrist Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, wrote on X: "If Keir Starmer has misled Parliament and lied to the British people, he has to go."

The prime minister has accused Mandelson of lying about the extent of his ties to Epstein during the vetting process for his Washington posting.

A government spokesperson said that foreign ministry officials made the decision to allow Mandelson's appointment to proceed "against the recommendation of UK Security Vetting".

But the spokesperson said neither Starmer nor the foreign minister "was aware" of this "until earlier this week".

The recommendation of UK Security Vetting was not binding, the spokesperson added.

Starmer said in February that Mandelson had been cleared by security vetting.

In March, Starmer's Labour government released about 150 pages of details of how Mandelson, a friend of Epstein, was vetted before being appointed ambassador in 2024.

Starmer sacked Mandelson as ambassador after documents released by a US Congressional committee revealed new details about the depth of his ties to Epstein. 

Police have opened an investigation into allegations of misconduct in office by Mandelson, who was arrested and bailed in February.

The force is investigating Mandelson over allegations he leaked sensitive documents to Epstein when he was a government minister, including during the 2008 financial crash.

NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS

"HISTORIC CROSSROADS"

ROME: Bank robbers in Italy held 25 people hostage for two hours on Thursday (Apr 16), before making their escape through a tunnel with loot from safe deposit boxes, a police source told AFP.

Three masked robbers, one of whom "was certainly armed", entered a branch of the French Credit Agricole bank in Naples at around 11:30am (5:30pm, Singapore time), the source said.

They took hostage customers and employees, who were rescued some two hours later, he said.

"Thanks to the swift response ... all the hostages were freed shortly after 1:30pm (7:30pm, Singapore time), without serious injuries," Naples Prefect Michele di Bari said in a statement.

Police broke windows to get inside the bank, according to local media footage from the scene.

But the robbers escaped through a tunnel which led "into the sewers", the police source said.

"The thieves took the contents of dozens of safe deposit boxes", he said.

Asked how much the stolen goods were worth, he said: "Nobody but the clients knows what was in those boxes".

Some 40 police officers, including some with sniffer dogs, were searching the area for the robbers, while forensic police at the scene dusted for fingerprints, the source said.

NEW YORK: Wall Street stocks climbed higher Thursday (Apr 16), adding to records as investors greeted optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump about negotiations with Iran while shrugging off a jump in crude prices.

After veering between gains and losses much of the day, all three major US indices finished in the black. That meant fresh records for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which ended up 0.4 per cent.

While there is still "nothing concrete" on Iran, commentary from Trump and other figures "is sounding constructive," said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare. 

"By all accounts, the market expects a good outcome here."

Analysts have said that some of the recent strength in stocks reflects a desire to get ahead of an actual deal that could push stocks even higher.

But energy prices have soared since the US-Israel siege on Feb 28, with Iran blocking most tankers from the Strait of Hormuz. Around a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes through the waterway.

Trump said the United States and Iran were "very close" to a peace deal, raising hopes that activity in the strait could resume.

"We had to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon," Trump said. "They've totally agreed to that. They've agreed to almost everything, so maybe if they can get to the table, there's a difference."

But earlier Thursday, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth took a tough line on the situation.

"If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy," Hegseth told a news conference at the Pentagon.

Oil prices bounced Thursday, with Brent oil futures rising nearly five per cent to more than US$99 a barrel.

Stephen Schork of the Schork Group attributed oil market volatility to the uneven rhetoric coming out of both Washington and Tehran. 

"We don't know how this ends or how quickly it ends," said Schork.

European stocks ended largely just in the green, with London and Frankfurt adding a little shy of 0.5 per cent on the day while Paris slipped slightly.

The Tokyo stock market earlier reached a record high, following all-time peaks for key US indexes on Wednesday as investors cheered healthy earnings for American blue chips despite surging oil prices and rising inflation overall.

Global stock markets "have staged one of the fastest recoveries in recent memory," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

At the same time, "oil prices remain elevated ... as investors look towards a possible extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran while weighing the chances of a broader agreement that could ultimately reopen the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

GENEVA: Four more current and former officials are now under criminal investigation in the probe into Switzerland's Crans-Montana fire disaster, sources close to the case told AFP on Thursday (Apr 16).

"The investigation has been extended to include four new individuals, bringing the total number of defendants to 13," the public prosecutors' office in southwest Switzerland's Wallis canton confirmed to AFP.

The Crans-Montana municipal councillor in charge of security, their 2013-2016 predecessor, the current deputy head of the public safety department, and the 2009-2016 mayor of the neighbouring municipality of Chermignon, will be interviewed between May 11 and Jun 3, sources close to the case told AFP.

The fire in a bar in the Swiss ski resort of Crans-Montana broke out early on Jan 1 as people celebrated the New Year. 

A total of 41 people were killed in the tragedy at Le Constellation - mostly teenagers - while another 115 were injured.

Those already under investigation include the bar's French owners - husband and wife Jacques and Jessica Moretti - who face charges of manslaughter by negligence, bodily harm by negligence and arson by negligence.

Jacques Moretti is set to be questioned again by public prosecutors on Jun 5.

"We must commend the progress of the investigation and the sustained pace of the hearings. We are making progress, and for the families, this is invaluable," Romain Jordan, a lawyer representing several victims' relatives, told AFP.

The announcement follows a second wave of hearings in the case, held over the past few weeks in the Wallis capital Sion.

Among those interviewed was Crans-Montana mayor Nicolas Feraud, who said Monday he had not been aware that annual safety inspections had not been carried out for six years at Le Constellation.

He insisted that his staff had the necessary resources to do the checks.

Prosecutors believe the fire started when champagne bottles with sparklers attached were raised too close to the ceiling in the bar's basement level, igniting the sound-insulation foam.

Seventeen of those killed were aged 16 or under.

The Federal Office for Civil Protection told AFP that as of Wednesday, 38 patients were still in hospitals and rehabilitation clinics: 19 in Switzerland and 19 in neighbouring countries.

The Wallis public prosecutor's office said Thursday that it had rejected a request by Garen Ucari, a lawyer for one victim's father, for an extraordinary prosecutor to be appointed to oversee the investigation.

"The Crans-Montana tragedy is an extraordinary event with an international dimension and significant media coverage, for which the criminal liability of elected officials and employees of the cantonal or municipal administration may be called into question," it said in a statement.

It said such cases fall under its own jurisdiction and the office had been reinforced with extra staff - and thus considered it had "the means to ensure the efficient handling of the proceedings, in accordance with the principles of independence, objectivity, and expediency".

BAMENDA, Cameroon:  Pope Leo blasted leaders who spend billions on wars and said the world was "being ravaged by a handful of tyrants", in unusually forceful remarks in Cameroon on Thursday (Apr 16), days after US President Donald Trump attacked him on social media.

Leo, the first American pope, also decried leaders who used religious language to justify wars and urged a "decisive change of course" in a meeting in the biggest city in Cameroon's anglophone regions, where a simmering conflict going back nearly a decade has left thousands dead.

"The masters of war pretend not to know that it takes only a moment to destroy, yet often a lifetime is not enough to rebuild," the pontiff said.

"They turn a blind eye to the fact that billions of dollars are spent on killing and devastation, yet the resources needed for healing, education and restoration are nowhere to be found."

"A WORLD TURNED UPSIDE DOWN"

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Trump's attacks on Leo, first launched on the eve of the pope's ambitious four-country tour of Africa and repeated late Tuesday, have caused dismay in Africa, where more than a fifth of the world's Catholics live.

Leo, who kept a relatively low profile for most of his first year as leader of the 1.4-billion-member Church, has emerged as an outspoken critic of the war that began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Sarah Mullally, spiritual leader of 85 million Anglicans worldwide, said on Thursday that she stood with the pope in his "courageous call for a kingdom of peace".

Speaking in the anglophone city of Bamenda, the pontiff also sharply criticised leaders who invoked religious themes to justify wars.

"Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth," he said.

"It is a world turned upside down, an exploitation of God’s creation that must be denounced and rejected by every honest conscience."

The pope made similar remarks last month, saying God rejected prayers from leaders with "hands full of blood", in comments widely interpreted as aimed at US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has invoked Christian language to justify the Iran war.

Trump began his criticism of Leo on Sunday, when he called the pope "weak on crime, and terrible for foreign policy" in a post on Truth Social.

The US president attacked Leo again on social media late on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Trump posted an image of Jesus embracing Trump, after an earlier image he posted that portrayed him as a Jesus-like figure, prompting widespread criticism.

Leo told Reuters on Monday that he would not stop speaking out about the Iran war and has avoided responding to Trump directly since then.

THREE-DAY CEASEFIRE DURING VISIT

After arriving in the Cameroon capital Yaounde on Wednesday, Leo urged the government of the Central African nation - led by President Paul Biya, at 93 the world's oldest ruler - to root out corruption and resist "the whims of the rich and powerful".

During a Mass at the airport in Bamenda on Thursday, attended by around 20,000 people, the pope criticised foreigners who exploited Africa's wealth, saying they were contributing to widespread poverty and underdevelopment.

"The time has come, today and not tomorrow, now and not in the future, to restore the mosaic of unity by bringing together the diversity and riches of the country and the continent," he said.

Leo's trip on Thursday to Bamenda has stirred faint hope that steps might be taken to resolve the conflict there, rooted in the country's complex colonial and post-colonial history.

Cameroon, a former German ​colony, was partitioned by Britain and France after World War One. The French part won independence in 1960 and was joined a year later by the smaller English-speaking British area to the west.

More than 6,500 people have been killed and more than half ‌a million displaced in fighting between government forces and anglophone separatist groups, ⁠according to the International Crisis Group.

Priests are frequently kidnapped for ransom and some have been killed. Pope Leo heard on Thursday from Sister Carine Tangiri Mangu, who described being kidnapped and held hostage for three days last November, and Imam Mohamad Abubakar, who described how armed men "invaded" a mosque during prayers that same month, killing three people.

A separatist alliance ⁠said it would observe a three-day ceasefire to allow civilians and visitors to move freely during the pope's visit.

Efforts to broker a ​peace deal have so far amounted to little, though Leo said he was heartened the crisis "has not degenerated into a religious war" and expressed hope that Christian and Muslim leaders could mediate an end to the fighting.

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s president will not speak to Israel’s prime minister in the near future, Lebanese officials said on Thursday (Apr 16), despite US President Donald Trump saying earlier that leaders of the two countries will speak.

This deals a blow to US efforts to expand contacts between the enemy states, as Pakistan said peace in Lebanon was vital to ending the Iran war.

The US-Israeli war with Iran spilt into Lebanon on Mar 2, when Iran-backed Hezbollah opened fire in support of Tehran, prompting an Israeli offensive in Lebanon just 15 months after the last major conflict.

"Peace in Lebanon is essential for (Iran) peace talks," said Tahir Andrabi, spokesperson for Pakistan's Foreign Ministry. 

The Israeli security Cabinet convened late on Wednesday to discuss a possible ceasefire in Lebanon. 

Trump said on Truth Social he was seeking to create “a little breathing room” between Israel and Lebanon, adding that the two leaders had not spoken for some 34 years and "it will happen tomorrow,” in a post published late on Wednesday in Washington. 

But three Lebanese officials told Reuters on Thursday that President Joseph Aoun would not hold a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the near future.

Two of the Lebanese officials said the Lebanese embassy in Washington had informed the US administration of the position before a call between Aoun and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday. A brief Lebanese presidency statement said Aoun thanked Rubio for the US efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Lebanon.

LEBANON SEEKS CEASEFIRE BEFORE TALKS

The Lebanese government has been sharply at odds with Hezbollah over its decision to enter the war, having spent the last year seeking to secure the peaceful disarmament of the group founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982.

Beirut banned Hezbollah's military activities on Mar 2.

Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors held rare talks in Washington on Tuesday but contact between Netanyahu and Aoun would be a major milestone in ties between the two countries, which have remained in a state of war since Israel was established in 1948.

Hezbollah opposes contacts between Lebanon and Israel.

Earlier, Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, told Israel's Army Radio that Netanyahu would "speak for the first time with the president of Lebanon after so many years of no contact between the two countries".

Aoun had said early in the war he would be open to direct talks but Lebanon's position is that a ceasefire should precede negotiations.

In a statement on Thursday, he said a ceasefire would be the "natural entry point for direct negotiations" with Israel.

Aoun, who commanded Lebanon's US-backed military before becoming president last year, said Israel's withdrawal would be a "fundamental step to consolidate the ceasefire" so that Lebanese troops could deploy to the south.

FIGHTING CONTINUES IN SOUTH LEBANON

Fighting continued to rage in south Lebanon, notably in the Lebanese border town of Bint Jbeil, a Hezbollah stronghold and strategic prize, which Netanyahu said on Wednesday the Israeli military was about to "overcome".

A senior Lebanese official said Lebanon believed Israel wanted to secure a victory in Bint Jbeil before diplomatic progress could be made. An Israeli strike destroyed the last bridge over the Litani River into the south, a senior Lebanese security source said, fully severing almost a tenth of Lebanon from the rest of the country after Israel destroyed other crossings during the war.

Hezbollah announced new rocket attacks at Israel. In Israel, sirens rang out warning of incoming rockets, sending residents of several northern Israeli towns running to bomb shelters. There were no immediate reports of injuries.

Israeli attacks have killed more than 2,100 people in Lebanon since Mar 2 and forced more than 1.2 million to flee, Lebanese authorities say. Hezbollah attacks have killed two ⁠Israeli civilians, while 13 Israeli soldiers have died in Lebanon since Mar 2, Israel says.

ISRAEL VOWS "NO-GO" ZONE FOR HEZBOLLAH 

The Israeli military's chief of staff said on Wednesday the area south of the Litani would be a "no-go zone for Hezbollah operatives", reflecting Israel's declared aim to keep control of a swathe of Lebanon south of the river that meets the Mediterranean about 30km north of Israel's border. 

Washington expressed optimism on Wednesday about reaching a deal to end the Iran war. The sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the Iran war on Apr 8, following mediation by Pakistan.

Israel and ‌the US have ⁠said the campaign against Hezbollah was not part of that ceasefire, though Pakistan's prime minister had said the truce would include Lebanon, as demanded by Iran.

A senior Israeli official and the senior Lebanese official said on Wednesday that Netanyahu's government was under heavy pressure from Washington to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon.

A senior US administration official said on Wednesday the Trump administration had not asked for a ceasefire, but the US president "would welcome the end of hostilities in Lebanon as part of a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon". 

ISLAMABAD: A 15-second video put Pakistan’s powerful army chief back in the global spotlight.

Posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the video shows Field Marshal Asim Munir descending from a plane in military uniform and receiving a fraternal hug from him. The Pakistani official travelled to the epicentre of the conflict to try to ease tensions and arrange a second round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Pakistan has been acting as the main mediator between Iran and the United States, and much of the attention has been on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, in part because they have been tweeting and issuing press releases about their efforts. But another figure has also been key to the process: the army chief.

Munir is set to meet with Iranian officials on Thursday (Apr 16) in hopes of extending the ceasefire.

Here are a few things to know about his role.

BEHIND THE SCENES, BUT A KEY PLAYER

Since Pakistan announced a few weeks ago that it was mediating between Iran and the US, Sharif has tasked Munir with maintaining behind-the-scenes contacts with American and Iranian political and military leaders in an effort to de-escalate the widening regional crisis, according to Pakistani officials.

There have been no specific details about what the army chief has been doing or whom he has met beyond publicly released images. However, the initial efforts appear to have had some effect, as Pakistan managed to convince US and Iranian delegations to hold rare face-to-face talks in Islamabad last week.

The talks did not produce a formal agreement, but the communication channel has remained open, and Munir is considered to have played a vital supporting role, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media.

Just a few days after the first round of talks ended, Pakistan kept reaching out to the parties and both sides agreed to explore a second round. In order to convince Iran, Munir flew to Tehran on Wednesday.

“Delighted to welcome Field Marshal Munir to Iran,” Araghchi posted on his X account alongside the video showing the Pakistani army chief.

According to Charles Lyons-Jones, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, Sharif and Dar, the foreign minister, "may well appear to be prominent figures in the US-Iran peace talks, but make no mistake, Asim Munir is the man taking the decisions”.

THE MOST POWERFUL MILITARY CHIEF IN PAKISTAN

Munir, a prominent figure inside and outside Pakistan, in December became the most powerful military person in the country when the government named him both the chief of army staff and the defence forces. Months before, he was promoted to field marshal, only the second military officer in the country’s history to hold the title.

“Field Marshal Munir is easily the most powerful Pakistani leader since Pervez Musharraf, giving him complete authority over military appointments, civilian government decision-making and the military’s sprawling business empire,” Lyons-Jones said.

Born in 1968 to a lower-middle-class family, Munir grew up in Rawalpindi and joined the military in 1986 in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a disputed region claimed by both Pakistan and India. He served in various parts of the country and spent time in Saudi Arabia as a colonel under a longstanding arrangement in which Pakistani forces help train Saudi troops. He learned Arabic and gained exposure to regional culture and politics, according to colleagues.

Munir later held several senior positions and is the only army chief to have headed both Military Intelligence and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the country’s premier intelligence agency.

GETTING TRUMP'S ATTENTION

US President Donald Trump has called Munir “my favourite field marshal” ,underscoring the importance he places on him.

“The relationship Munir built with Trump has made Pakistan uniquely qualified to mediate peace talks between the United States and Iran,” Lyons-Jones said. "It is, indeed, the only country in the region that enjoys strong ties to Iran, the Gulf nations and the United States."

Munir played a prominent role in last year's four-day conflict between India and Pakistan, which raised fears of a nuclear confrontation, before Trump announced he helped facilitate a ceasefire. According to his associates, Munir played a central role in shaping Pakistan’s responses to regional crises.

When Iran carried out strikes inside Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province earlier this year, targeting what it described as rebel positions, officials say Munir supported a calibrated response that included Pakistan's retaliatory strikes against militant hideouts across the border.

Similarly, following Indian strikes inside Pakistan last year, after an attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, Munir worked with senior military leadership on Pakistan’s response, according to Syed Mohammad Ali, a friend of Munir. Pakistani officials said they included coordinated use of air power, missiles and drones.

He adopted a similar approach along the border with Afghanistan, where the countries clashed over support for militant groups targeting Pakistan.

A MAN WHO TAKES ON DIFFICULT ASSIGNMENTS

Munir is regarded by those who know him as a figure who likes challenging assignments. He is also respected for his knowledge of the Quran, and is referred to as “hafiz”, or somebody who has memorised the holy book.

“He understands Islam, he understands the Quran, and he believes in what it teaches,” Ali said. “His concepts are very clear: he does what others fear to do.” Ali described Munir as a deliberate decision-maker. “He thinks many times before taking a decision, and once he decides, he pursues it with full dedication, leaving the outcome to God.”

His associates said that Munir’s visit to Tehran also reflects the Iranian leadership’s confidence in him, noting that senior Iranian officials - operating under heightened security concerns following US and Israeli strikes - came out to receive him despite the risk of exposing their locations.

LONDON: Oil prices rose over 1 per cent on Thursday (Apr 16), reversing earlier declines as the market questioned whether peace talks between the US and Iran would achieve a deal to end the war that has disrupted energy supplies from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures climbed 1.8 per cent to US$96.61 a barrel at 1.09pm GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 1.3 per cent to US$92.46 a barrel.

"We remain sceptical of any immediate solving of this war," said PVM oil market analyst John Evans. "Pick any headline and there is always a counter."

The US-Israeli war with Iran has caused unprecedented disruption of global oil and gas. 

It has led to the halting of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about 20 per cent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

POSSIBLE RESUMPTION OF PEACE TALKS

US and Iranian officials were considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as the coming weekend. Pakistan's army chief arrived in Tehran on Wednesday as a mediator.

A source briefed by Tehran told Reuters that Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a deal to prevent renewed conflict after a two-week ceasefire started on Apr 8.

In another sign of a potential easing of military actions, Israel's Cabinet met on Wednesday to discuss a possible ceasefire in neighbouring Lebanon, a senior Israeli official said, more than six weeks into its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Analysts from ING estimate that roughly 13 million barrels per day of oil flow has been disrupted by the closure of the Strait, after taking into consideration pipeline diversions and the trickle of tankers that have passed through the gateway.

With the US blockade on Iranian ports announced after the collapse of peace talks over the weekend, the disruption could increase, although some US-sanctioned tankers have made it through.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington will not be renewing sanction waivers for some Iranian and Russian oil.

Highlighting the constraints on global crude and oil product supply, US inventories of oil, gasoline and distillate fuels fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as countries seeking barrels to replace the disrupted flows drove exports and meant imports shrank.