Israel is winning wars but losing American public opinion

Israel may be beating its enemies in the Middle East, but it is losing something just as important: the American public.

According to a new Pew Research Center survey, more than 60 percent of Americans now view Israel unfavorably — up from 53 percent last year. 

This is a recent survey, meaning it captures public sentiment after the opening salvo of the Iran war. More striking still is the intensity: 28 percent of respondents said they hold a “very unfavorable view of Israel,” up 9 points in one year and nearly triple the figure from 2022.

Even before Iran entered the discussion, Israel was already losing friends. The war in Gaza had soured many Americans, particularly younger folks on the left. At the same time, antisemitism on the far right has staged a comeback in the Trump era.

Taken together, this might have served as a flashing warning sign for Israel. Instead, Israel appears to have decided that whatever reputational damage might come drawing the U.S. into the effort to topple the Iranian regime was a price worth paying.

In strictly “Israel first” terms, there is an argument to be made. After the massacre of October 7, 2023 — featuring murder, rape, torture, and hostage-taking by Hamas — Israel’s sense of existential threat expanded beyond the theoretical. And although Iran clearly did not and does not pose an imminent danger to the U.S., Israel doesn’t share the luxury of distance.

Still, Israel’s long-term security has rested largely on its friendship with the U.S., which in turn rests on support from the American public. 

Israel’s recent actions seem almost tailor-made to erode both. The Pew numbers suggest that is reality, not speculation.

To be sure, a good deal of responsibility for this reputational damage belongs to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose own declining popularity tracks neatly alongside Israel’s in the survey.

Bibi’s bromance with Trump has pushed away mainstream Democrats, many of whom view Trump as the real threat to liberal democracy.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s efforts to encourage U.S. action in Iran have rankled non-interventionist Republicans, who are starting to wonder whether “America First” was just a bait-and-switch.

Before we go any further, it’s worth pausing to separate criticism from racism. Some claims — that Netanyahu utterly manipulated or controlled Trump — veer into territory that echoes old antisemitic tropes. 

The relevant distinctions, at least in my mind, are whether such claims target Israeli policy or Jewish people more broadly, and whether they are supported by evidence or by hate.

Trump is not a puppet. To suggest otherwise lets him off the hook far too easily. Absent credible evidence, theories about blackmail or threats belong in the same intellectual category as UFO abductions.

That said, reporting does indicate that Netanyahu worked to persuade Trump to go to war with Iran. This included painting an overly optimistic picture of how such a war might go.

According to a report by the New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, during a February meeting in the White House Situation Room, Netanyahu told Trump that Iran was “ripe for regime change;” that its missile program could be dismantled quickly; that retaliation would be limited; and that protests inside Iran would reemerge. 

Some of Trump’s top advisors were incredulous. The CIA director reportedly described the picture Netanyahu painted as “farcical.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it “bulls—.”

General Dan Caine was more diplomatic: “They know they need us,” he said of Israel, “and that’s why they’re hard-selling.”

Trump sided with Netanyahu. Even then, he could have changed his mind, but Rubio and others have implied that Israeli action was the immediate deciding factor for Trump.

This brings us to today, a situation where Israel is bleeding American public support. It is entirely possible this will all be resolved, and that Israel’s bet will ultimately pay off. Perhaps things will even work out so well that Israel’s popularity in America rebounds. Perhaps. 

A more likely outcome is continued erosion of U.S. public support, which could eventually force a future president (of either party) to reassess our “special relationship” — including the scale and nature of American financial aid.

That outcome is, at least, no longer unthinkable. And the story may not be over yet, since the two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran may not last.

Matt K. Lewis is a columnist, podcaster and author of the books “Too Dumb to Fail” and “Filthy Rich Politicians.”