Managing natural areas in a changing climate
Land managers need site-specific information about the vulnerability of plants and animals to climate change. The most common way to measure climate is through air temperature and precipitation. However, these two variables alone don’t account for many important aspects of climate that affect plants and animals. For example, water can be stored temporarily (as snow or in the soil), some runs off, and some evaporates. Local conditions like soil, slope, and slope aspect (the compass direction the slope is facing) modify the timing and abundance of water in soil. One way to better predict climate effects is to estimate how water availability—not just total precipitation—affects plants and animals. This approach uses a concept called water balance.
What is water balance?
Water balance is like a checking account for water. It tracks water input and output as well as the different forms it can take as liquid, solid, and gas. Whether precipitation falls as rain or snow depends on the temperature. How much water is stored in soil or how much runs off depends on soil properties. The duration of time when soil is moist enough for plant growth depends on temperature as well as the topographic setting on a north or south facing hillside. After snow melts, warm temperature returns some moisture to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. As the growing season progresses, soils dry, unless it rains (like a deposit into a checking account). This means that over the course of a dry summer, plants may have less access to water than they need, a condition called water deficit. Water deficit is an important measure of water balance as it strongly affects vegetation health.How is water balance used?
A water balance model derives many variables from temperature and precipitation that are important to plants and animals. These variables include soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, water deficit, and more. Compared to temperature and precipitation, these variables are usually better at predicting how plants and animals respond. This is because they are better estimates of the conditions plants and animals actually experience. For example, not all precipitation is available to plants, as some runs off to provide habitat for fish and frogs. Also, plants don’t use rain directly—they take moisture from soil.A case study in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve applied a water balance model to plant growth in response to climate. The results showed that plants at higher elevations in the park had plenty of moisture but not much warmth—they tended to be temperature limited and warmer temperatures significantly boosted their growth. Conversely, lower elevation plants had sufficient warmth but not always enough moisture—they tended to be water limited and moisture from snowfall accelerated their growth. Park managers can use these results to track different aspects of climate if they are curious about climate impacts in different areas of the park.
NPS/Patrick Myers
The value of water balance
Including water balance in our models of climate impacts on park resources is a step closer to understanding the process of water use by plants and animals, both aquatic and terrestrial. This improved understanding translates to better predictions of how park resources may fare in the future as the climate changes. Better understanding and predictions mean park managers may be able to prevent some undesirable effects of climate change or may be able to use restoration to undo damage that has already occurred.
Water balance has several added benefits:
- It is broadly applicable. A growing collection of research and case studies apply water balance to varying resources, from spring and stream flow to plant and animal responses. See the published studies below.
- It is readily accessible. This approach uses commonly available climate data and a water balance model that translates temperature and precipitation into more ecologically relevant measures of water availability.
- It supports Climate Smart Conservation. Water balance modeling feeds directly into an internationally used planning framework known as Climate Smart Conservation. It provides quantitative measures of climate exposure and sensitivity needed to understand how vulnerable resources are to climate change.
Water balance studies in national parks
Below you’ll find studies describing the use of water balance for understanding and managing climate impacts in national parks. They show a variety of ways that water balance can be used to help land managers predict and respond to the effects of climate change on natural resources in their care. Click on the Publications tab to view the full studies. Click on the Printable Briefs tab to view a mix of study summaries, where available, and other water balance content. Browse the Web Briefs and Articles to view a mix of study summaries, where available, and other water balance content in HTML format.Source: NPS DataStore Collection 7928. To search for additional information, visit the NPS DataStore.
Source: NPS DataStore Collection 7929. To search for additional information, visit the NPS DataStore.
Web briefs and articles
Showing results 1-10 of 23
- Type: Article
- Locations: Arches National Park,Black Canyon Of The Gunnison National Park,Bryce Canyon National Park,Canyonlands National Park,Capitol Reef National Park, more »
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
Birds of the desert southwest, a climate-change hotspot, are among the most vulnerable groups in the US. To help park managers plan for those changes, scientists evaluated the influence of water deficit on landbird communities at 11 national parks in Utah and Colorado. The results will help land managers to focus conservation efforts on places where certain species are most vulnerable to projected climate changes.
- Type: Article
- Locations: Canyonlands National Park
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
Long-term monitoring creates a record of the past—and a window into the future. Linking satellite observations of vegetation condition with climate data over time can help us understand what kinds of future changes may occur. The results can help park managers know what to expect over the next few decades, providing them with time and tools to plan for a range of scenarios.
- Type: Article
- Locations: Alibates Flint Quarries National Monument,Amistad National Recreation Area,Arches National Park,Aztec Ruins National Monument,Bandelier National Monument, more »
- Offices: Chihuahuan Desert Inventory & Monitoring Network,Greater Yellowstone Inventory & Monitoring Network,Inventory and Monitoring Division,Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network, more »
Across the Intermountain Region, Inventory & Monitoring Division ecologists are helping to track the effects of climate change, provide baseline information for resource management, evaluate new technologies, and inspire the next generation of park stewards. This article highlights accomplishments achieved during fiscal year 2021.
- Type: Article
- Locations: Capitol Reef National Park
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
Long-term monitoring creates a record of the past—and a window into the future. Linking satellite observations of vegetation condition with climate data over time can help us understand what kinds of future changes may occur. The results can help park managers know what to expect over the next few decades, providing them with time and tools to plan for a range of scenarios.
- Type: Article
- Locations: Colorado National Monument
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
Long-term monitoring creates a record of the past—and a window into the future. Linking satellite observations of vegetation condition with climate data over time can help us understand what kinds of future changes may occur. The results can help park managers know what to expect over the next few decades, providing them with time and tools to plan for a range of scenarios.
- Type: Article
- Locations: Arches National Park
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
At Arches National Park, scientists measured discharge at three springs less than a mile from each other over 14 years. The results identified spring types that may be more stable over time and have greater ability to make it through extended drought without drying. The study showed how having access to long-term ecological monitoring data can help park managers to maximize the potential success of conservation efforts.
- Type: Article
- Locations: Arches National Park,Canyonlands National Park,Capitol Reef National Park,Curecanti National Recreation Area,Dinosaur National Monument
- Offices: Inventory and Monitoring Division,Northern Colorado Plateau Inventory & Monitoring Network
The results of a recent study may help land managers to prioritize grassland conservation and restoration efforts. Park managers can’t do much about climate, but with the right information, they can make choices based on how different grassland communities behave in different soil types. In this study, cool-season grasses showed more resilience to drought than warm-season grasses.
- Type: Article
- Locations: Arches National Park,Canyonlands National Park,Hovenweep National Monument,Natural Bridges National Monument,Yellowstone National Park,Yosemite National Park
In response to climate change, park managers are having to rethink how they plan for the future. Climate Smart Conservation is a process that can help managers achieve goals in the face of coming changes. Under this framework, scientists and managers use their collective knowledge to anticipate problems and be proactive, rather than reactive.
- Yellowstone National Park
Patterns of Primary Production & Ecological Drought in Yellowstone
- Type: Article
- Locations: Yellowstone National Park
Photosynthesis converts sunlight into stored energy in millions of leaves, flowers, and seeds that maintain the web of life in Yellowstone. This transformation of energy fixes carbon, supplies organic matter to soils, and creates fuel for wildfire. As the first link of the food chain, new plant biomass is called primary production and provides energy to consumers, including wildlife...
- Great Sand Dunes National Park & Preserve
Water Balance Underlies Natural Resource Conditions at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve
- Type: Article
- Locations: Great Sand Dunes National Park & Preserve
As climate change intensifies, land managers need to understand its multifaceted effects on the ground. We used an old tool—water balance—in new ways to better understand how vegetation, stream flow, and wildfire ignitions respond to climate across the range of elevations and vegetation types in Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve. Case studies like this highlight the value of using water balance analyses for climate change adaptation.
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Learn more
To learn more about water balance and climate change adaptation, including additional research, contact:David Thoma, Ecologist
Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network
Billy Schweiger, Ecologist
Rocky Mountain Inventory and Monitoring Network
John Gross, Ecologist
Climate Change Response Program
*Figure adapted from Gray, S. T., and G. J. McCabe. 2010. A combined water balance and tree ring approach to understanding the potential hydrologic effects of climate change in the central Rocky Mountain region. Water Resources Research 46(5).
Last updated: January 13, 2025
