Understanding Climate Science

When the climate changes enough, the vegetation communities growing in any given place will also change. Under an expanded bimodal climate zone, some plant communities in western national parks are more likely to change than others. National Park Service ecologists and partners investigated the future conditions that may force some of this change. Having this information can help park managers decide whether to resist, direct, or accept the change.

The wild lands of Alaska national parks are changing at a rapid pace due to the disproportionate increases in temperature at high latitudes. Climate has fundamentally shaped the landscape of high-latitude parks, but now climate change is redefining them. This collection of articles provides a glimpse of the science related to climate change in the high-latitude parks of Alaska.

Innovative tools are being developed to nowcast and forecast the severity of drought impacts on wildfire hazard, and other conditions. Automated alerts and forecasts of resource condition provide lead time to implement creative solutions to minimize drought impacts in national parks. The information used to build forecasts is also useful for understanding and planning for potential climate change impacts in the future. Intermountain Park Science, 2024

In the aftermath of the devastating 2022 Yellowstone floods, we examined historical river flows. Could our insights help predict future events?

Decades of climate-driven drought, and a consistent imbalance between supply and demand for Colorado River water have led to low reservoir levels in the Colorado River Basin. Low water levels have implications to rivers located both upstream and downstream of the reservoirs, including the introduction of invasive fish. We modeled the probability that smallmouth bass would establish and what we could do to mitigate that threat. Intermountain Park Science, 2024

Have you wondered what will happen to vegetation in arid climates if they become more arid in the future? Northern Colorado Plateau Network scientists explored the relationships between climate and vegetation at Bryce Canyon National Park. Results include discovery of changes that have already occurred and identification of vegetation types that are most sensitive to continued climate change, providing managers with insights into future scenarios that can aid decision making.

Read the summary and get the link to an article that describes a new approach to model lake ice phenology: Kirchner, P. B. and M. P. Hannam. 2024. Volume-mediated lake-ice phenology in Southwest Alaska revealed through remote sensing and survival analysis. Water 16(16): 2309.

What does climate change mean for Timucuan Preserve? Learn about the specific changes, challenges, and opportunities for action in the park.

The Midwest United States, with its windy, rolling plains, doesn't often come to mind when we think about the effects of climate change on our world - but it should.

The rugged beauty of Alaska has been the homelands of Alaska Native people for thousands of generations. Today the relentless march of climate change threatens a range of cultural resources from archeological sites to historic cemeteries. Now the National Park Service is in a race to document heritage across the parklands in Alaska.