Projected Effects of Climate Change on Birds in U.S. National Parks

Birds in U.S. national parks find strong protection from many longstanding and pervasive threats, but remain highly exposed to effects of ongoing climate change. As climate in a particular place changes, suitability may worsen for some species and improve for others. These changes in climate may alter distributions of historically occurring species, creating the potential for local extirpation or new colonization (Figure 1).

This page summarizes model-based projections of changes in climate suitability by mid-century for birds across 274 natural resource national parks under two climate change scenarios (for more information regarding how climate suitability is characterized, see Langham et al. 2015). Results throughout this page focus primarily on the high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5) because it is the scenario most consistent with current greenhouse gas emissions rates; however, comparisons are made to results for the low-emissions pathway (RCP2.6) as a contrasting, best-case scenario for emissions reductions (see Methods).

This study focuses exclusively on changing climatic conditions for birds over time. But projected changes in climate suitability are not definitive predictions of future species ranges or abundances. Numerous other factors affect where species occur, including habitat quality, food abundance, species adaptability, and the availability of microclimates (see Caveats). Therefore, managers should consider changes in climate suitability alongside these other important influences.

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Use the panels below to download project briefs for each park and learn more about this study.

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Additional resources

• Download this page's information in a printable PDF handout.
• View the project homepage on the Audubon Society website.
• Read the original journal article in PLOS ONE.

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