NIGERIA’S POPULATION POLITICS: LET US STOP THIS OSTRICH STATISTICS – HOW MANY ARE WE REALLY?
Nigeria’s population has long been a contentious issue, reflecting a deeply rooted historical complexity tied to the nation’s socio-political fabric. This essay looks to understand these intricacies by exploring the historical journey of Nigeria’s population statistics, revealing the complex interplay between demographic growth, political manoeuvres, and socio-economic development. From the colonial era to the present day, understanding how many Nigerians we are, is a statistical query; and has still been, not just for conversations but also a question laden with political implications and socio-economic consequences.
The roots of Nigeria’s population politics can be traced back to the colonial era, where initial attempts at population enumeration were made for administrative conveniences rather than a true reflection of demographic reality. The first census conducted by the British in 1911 aimed primarily at taxation and governance, laying a foundation of skepticism and doubt about the accuracy of these early numbers. Later censuses in 1921 and 1931 faced similar issues, with inconsistent methodologies and logistical challenges given Nigeria’s vast geographical and cultural diversity.
These colonial censuses set a precedence for the political undercurrents that would later characterise Nigeria’s demographic statistics. British officials often manipulated census results to consolidate their power over different ethnic groups, sowing seeds of distrust and competition among various regions – a legacy that lingers to this day.
With Nigeria’s independence in 1960, the need for correct population data became even more critical for national planning and political representation. However, the conduct of population censuses in the post-independence era, like everything else, was fraught with controversy and conflict. The 1962 and 1963 censuses were marred by allegations of exaggeration and manipulation, primarily driven by ethnic and regional interests vying for political dominance. Population numbers directly influenced political representation and resource allocation, leading to a contested demographic battleground.
The notorious 1973 census, which was eventually canceled, highlighted the high stakes involved. The declared figures were politically motivated, reflecting regional tensions between the North and South. Compounding these challenges was an inadequate infrastructure and lack of technological resources, which hampered data collection efforts and undermined the credibility of the results.
The issue of ethnic undercounting in Nigeria’s census history complicated the delicate balance of demographic representation and national unity. Various ethnic groups historically perceived the census process as a battleground for deciding political power and resource distribution. The need to keep or increase demographic numbers often led to significant undercounting of certain groups, either due to logistical challenges, intentional manipulations, or both.
During the post-independence censuses, regions with diverse ethnic compositions faced challenges. For example, the Southeastern Igbo region and parts of the Niger Delta argued that their populations were consistently underreported, affecting their access to federal resources and political representation. This undercounting sowed seeds of distrust toward federal systems and exacerbated ethnic tensions, as the groups felt marginalised and disenfranchised.
The implications of obvious ethnic undercounting extend beyond mere numbers – they strike at the heart of Nigeria’s socio-political stability and national cohesion. By fostering a sense of exclusion, these inaccuracies led to increased disillusionment with governmental processes and institutions. Ethnic groups who perceive themselves as underrepresented have historically resorted to calls for political restructuring, increased autonomy, or, in extreme cases, secession. These demands have been worsened by the feeling that certain regions, particularly the North, have consistently been over-represented in census figures, thereby receiving a disproportionate share of political influence and national resources.
This falsehood and false data have stunted Nigeria’s growth by fostering an environment where ethnic loyalty often supersedes national identity, impeding cross-regional collaboration and national unity. Social and economic development has also suffered by this focus on ethnic headcounts over fair and effective policymaking, limiting Nigeria’s ability to harness its diverse human resources.
The repercussions of unreliable and politically influenced census data continue to reverberate through many aspects of Nigerian life. Accurate demographic information is essential for effective economic planning, infrastructure development, and social service delivery. Under counting, for whatever reason, lead to skewed budget allocations, inadequate public services, and missed opportunities for economic development, particularly in already marginalised regions.
Undercounting also affects education and health sectors significantly, as these areas rely on population data to distribute resources such as schools, teachers, hospitals, and healthcare professionals. Regions perceived as having smaller populations might receive fewer schools and health facilities, perpetuating cycles of poverty and underdevelopment. This inadequacy leads to increased urban migration as individuals seek better opportunities, worsening urban overpopulation and straining city infrastructure.
Addressing the issue of ethnic undercounting and sometimes exclusion, is critical for fostering national development and unity. Moving forward, Nigeria must adopt transparent, technology-driven census methodologies that minimise human intervention and potential biases. Engaging independent observers and utilising advanced technologies like biometric systems and digital mapping can enhance the credibility of future censuses.
Overcounting is just as detrimental as undercounting, with profound implications also for governance, resource allocation, and national development. In regions like Nigeria’s North, where claimed demographic figures often do not align with visible socio-economic realities, overcounting has led to a skewed distribution of federal resources. This imbalance arises because census data is a primary determinant for the allocation of national revenue, political representation, and development projects. When areas are overrepresented in population figures, they receive a disproportionate share of resources, often at the expense of regions with more substantial needs but fewer “allocated” numbers.
Such misrepresentation has worsened regional inequalities and fuelled resentment among marginalised communities. For example, if a region’s population is overcounted, it may receive more funding for infrastructure projects that are not needed and that is never executed, resulting in misapplications and misappropriation of resources while genuinely high-demand areas suffer from a lack of resources. This inequality stymies national development by fostering inefficiencies and perpetuating systematic disparities.
The botched 1973 census serves as a sharp example of how number padding and bribery can undermine the integrity of demographic data. During this period, inflated population figures and widespread malpractices illustrated the lengths to which regional leaders would go to secure a greater share of power and resources. Such practices were not confined to one area; they reflected a nationwide problem where various regions engaged in number cladding to advance their interests.
The fallout from such actions goes beyond numerical inaccuracies – it erodes trust in national institutions and perpetuates a culture of corruption. When census or any data is manipulated to achieve a predetermined result, citizens lose faith in the government’s ability to accurately assess and address their needs, leading to heightened sectional tensions and undermining national unity.
Addressing the dual issues of overcounting and undercounting requires a comprehensive overhaul of the national census method. Technological interventions, such as deploying biometric systems and satellite imagery, can create checks and balances to prevent inflated figures. These technologies can independently verify population data and reduce opportunities for human interference and manipulation.
Moreover, setting up a transparent, inclusive census process is crucial. Engaging local communities and civil society organizations in the enumeration process can increase oversight and accountability. Furthermore, creating legal and administrative penalties for census fraud can deter attempts at number manipulation.
Equipping the National Population Commission with greater autonomy and robust funding can also help improved data collection processes. Allowing international observers to take part or provide expertise can introduce impartiality and help align Nigeria’s processes with global best practices.
Solving the problem of inaccurate demographic representation involves a commitment to fair governance and the political will to treat all regions fairly. Moving beyond manipulation of census figures requires national introspection and the development of integrity-driven frameworks that prioritize truthfulness over political gain. By ensuring correct census data, Nigeria can lay a better foundation for sustainable economic growth and inclusive national planning, enabling all regions to contribute to and benefit from the nation’s development.
Beyond technological solutions, there must be a political and cultural shift towards viewing population data as a tool for inclusive nation-building rather than a zero-sum game. Encouraging dialogue and reconciliation among Nigeria’s diverse ethnic groups is essential for healing historical grievances and building trust in the census process. Exact and trusted demographic data will enable Nigeria to use its population potential fully, fostering a prosperous and unified nation.
In the quest for more reliable population data, Nigeria has tried to implement technocratic reforms, aiming to depoliticise the census process. The introduction of the National Population Commission (NPC) in 1988 marked a significant step towards professionalizing demographic data gathering. Yet, later censuses in 1991 and 2006 were still plagued by accusations of inaccuracies and political biases.
Technological advancements in data collection methods offer a new frontier in addressing these persistent challenges. The integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital data capture systems presents an opportunity to improve accuracy and transparency. However, these tools are only as effective as the governance structures that employ them, and questions of political will and ethnic rivalry continue to threaten the integrity of census processes.
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The politicisation of census and population data in Nigeria is rooted in the complex interplay of ethnicity, tribalism, regionalism, and the struggle for political power. Over the decades as we’ve earlier highlighted, political elites have strategically manipulated census figures to favour certain regions or ethnic groups. This manipulation often arises from the link between population numbers and political representation, revenue allocation, and economic planning. Given that federal allocations and political representation are heavily influenced by population figures, there is a strong incentive for regional leaders to inflate numbers to gain political advantage, power, and access to greater resources.
The periodic releases of census data often become contentious political events, with each census cycle sparking debates and accusations of bias. This has created situations where census results are met with skepticism, if not outright rejection, by various stakeholders. The challenge lies not only in counting individuals accurately but also in ensuring that the figures are legitimate and fair. The persistence of this problem suggests a systemic issue where population data is viewed through the prism of political manipulations rather than neutral, factual reporting.
Integral to the politicisation of census data is the emphasis on primitive and insensitive questions related to tribal and religious affiliation and state and local government of origin. These questions, remnants of colonial categorization systems, continue to entrench divisions rather than promote national unity. The focus on ethnic identity and regional affiliation in official documents only serves to deepen existing fault lines, reinforcing a narrative of division rather than unity. Each succeeding government has persisted with these metrics, often justifying them as necessary for regional development planning. However, they inadvertently fuel competition and suspicion among diverse groups.
This emphasis on tribal and regional identity continually detracts from the essence of what a census should prioritise, which is understanding the true needs of the population for effective policymaking. It diverts attention from important socio-economic variables such as education, employment, and healthcare needs, areas where data can genuinely contribute to improving citizens’ lives. By continuing to focus on these outdated questions, Nigeria misses the opportunity to use census data as a transformative tool for comprehensive national development.
To move beyond the failures of the past, Nigeria can draw lessons from other countries where censuses transcend mere headcounts to create opportunities for national improvement, development, and growth. For instance, countries like Canada and Australia have successfully integrated census data into national planning, focusing on areas such as health, education, housing, and employment. These nations prioritise transparency, involve comprehensive public consultation processes, and use advanced technology to ensure data accuracy and credibility.
For Nigeria to adopt similar standards, it must first de-emphasise ethnic affiliations and instead focus on variables that foster socio-economic development. The adoption of more sophisticated census tools, including digital enumeration methods and the use of statistical sampling for hard-to-reach areas, can help improve accuracy. Moreover, strengthening the independence of national statistical bodies and insulating them from political interference will be crucial in restoring the credibility of census processes.
A future-oriented approach to the Nigerian census must conceptualise population data as a cornerstone of national development rather than a mere tool for political jockeying. This involves creating a broad public awareness campaign to educate citizens about the census’s purpose and benefits, thereby fostering public trust and participation. Furthermore, incorporating insights from social sciences into the census process can help policymakers understand not only demographic trends but also the social dynamics at play.
Achieving a credible census requires Nigeria to confront its historical biases and institutional weaknesses, promoting an inclusive process that reflects the country’s diverse population dynamics. Empowering a well-funded, independent statistical agency will be vital in overseeing this transformation. By learning from other global contexts and adopting a holistic, transparent approach, Nigeria can harness the power of census data to drive a realistic and sustainable development for its citizens, moving beyond numbers to truly meet the needs of its populace.
In Nigeria, the saying that everything is a fight rings true, capturing the spirit of a nation where competition overshadows collaboration. From political tussles to the management of national resources, the focus seems more on fighting against each other than for collective progress. This adversarial mindset has stymied the implementation of many innovative ideas, including population policies that, elsewhere in the world, symbolize and reflect national aspirations. Nigeria, however, is still haunted by verbose exaggerations and empty promises, as complex problems persist without pragmatic solutions, stalling both development and growth.
The national identity card exercises carried out between 2000 and 2021 exemplify this pattern of inefficacy. These initiatives, meant to streamline identification and improve governance, instead highlighted systemic failures. The processes were fraught with corruption, delays, and logistical nightmares, resulting in a substantial financial burden on the nation. Despite significant investment, the first cards became obsolete without adequate explanation, while the second effort struggles with multiple registrations and a large, unregistered population. The root of these failures lies not in external circumstances but within national structures and attitudes resistant to transparency and efficiency.
To move beyond these entrenched patterns of failure, Nigeria must radically rethink and restructure its approaches. A promising start would be to deconstruct and decentralise the conduct of essential functions such as the census. Currently, states like Zamfara and Cross River, at diametrically opposite ends and extremely far from Abuja, are at the mercy of federal bureaucracy based in Abuja, always waiting for approvals and allocations that often do not come aligned with local needs and timelines. This centralised approach does not account for the diverse and specific needs of different regions, communities, and peoples, hampering effective planning for development and security within states.
Decentralisation would empower state or regional governments to take charge of their demographic data collection and use, tailoring strategies to better suit their unique contexts. By giving states, the autonomy to conduct their censuses, they could more accurately assess and address local challenges, leading to better-informed policy decisions.
The case of Lagos State during the last census presents an interesting example of localised data collection and its impact on governance. Under the leadership of then-Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the state conducted a parallel census that included specific questions designed to extract relevant demographic information. This initiative aimed to provide a clearer picture of the population’s needs and characteristics, which is crucial for effective planning and resource allocation.
The results of this census were instrumental in the establishment of the Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) in Lagos, which are still in use today for administrative and development purposes. These LCDAs have enabled more localised governance and better targeted public services, reflecting the specific demands and dynamics of their respective communities.
Decentralisation highlights a vital aspect of governance – empowering states or regional governments to take charge of their demographic data collection. By allowing states to conduct their censuses, they can tailor their strategies to fit unique contexts, ensuring that local challenges are accurately assessed. This autonomy not only leads to better-informed policy decisions but also fosters a sense of ownership and accountability among local leaders, enhancing the effectiveness of governance at the grassroots level. This model could serve as an exemplary framework for other regions looking to improve their data collection and policy response mechanisms.
Moreover, decentralisation encourages accountability and closer scrutiny from local communities, potentially reducing instances of corruption and mismanagement that currently plague nationwide exercises.
Reflecting on Nigeria’s current state, it becomes clear that genuine progress requires a cultural shift towards cooperation and collective national interest. Encouraging collaboration across federal, state, and local levels can transform competitive rivalries into partnerships for shared success. Transparency, accountability, and efficiency must replace the verbose exaggerations that have long characterized national discourse. Learning from past missteps in initiatives like the national identity card programs can inform innovative approaches that are citizen-centred and result-oriented.
In redefining how governance runs, Nigeria can transition from a nation where ideas are buried in bureaucracy and conflict, to one where visionary policy seeding growth and development take root. Moving towards a future where the fight is for each other’s success rather than against each other’s interests could catalyse significant and lasting change, unleashing Nigeria’s full potential as a unified and prosperous nation.
Today, Nigeria is the most “exaggeratedly” populous country in Africa, with estimates, [we have been doing these estimates for God knows how long], suggesting a population exceeding [another hyperbole] 200 million people. While these numbers paint a picture of a dynamic and growing nation, they are, off the mark, wrong and based on primitive projections rather than precise scientific and statistical headcounts. The failure to conduct a nationally accepted census since 1960 aggravates this uncertainty, raising questions about the country’s ability to plan effectively for its future.
A shift towards continuous demographic data collection presents a viable alternative to traditional census exercises that often fall short due to various issues, including political motivations. While implementing a continuous system comes with challenges, the benefits of timely, accurate population data could lead to better-informed policies and a stronger, more responsive governance structure. By leveraging technology and enhancing community engagement, governments can overcome many of these challenges and create a more dynamic and effective demographic monitoring system. Continuous population data collection refers to an ongoing process of gathering demographic, social, and economic information about a population rather than relying on periodic census exercises, which typically occur every ten years. This approach allows for real-time or near real-time insights into various demographic changes and trends, enabling governments and organizations to make informed decisions based on the most current data.
Continuous population data collection in my view, presents a viable solution to Nigeria’s perennial census challenges. It allows for a more nuanced and responsive approach to managing demographic information, thus facilitating better governance and improving the quality of life for citizens. By shifting from a singular focus on periodic censuses to a more dynamic and integrated data collection system, Nigeria can ensure that its planning and development reflect the realities on the ground, ultimately leading to more effective policies and outcomes.
Accurate population data is crucial for addressing Nigeria’s myriad social challenges: urbanisation pressures, unemployment, health care, education, infrastructural development, and security challenges. Without reliable statistics, policymakers are left to work in a data vacuum, relying on assumptions [which we have been doing] that do not accurately reflect the needs of the population. Furthermore, the regional distribution of population affects federal resource allocation and political representation, influencing everything from election outcomes to regional development priorities.
Nigeria’s population politics is a microcosm of the broader socio-political complexities that define the nation. The journey from colonial enumeration efforts to current demographic estimates reflects a continual struggle for accuracy amidst political manoeuvrings. As Nigeria stands at the cusp of demographic transition, with a youthful population poised to shape the future, it is imperative to confront the ostrich mentality of ignoring foundational statistical uncertainties. Resolving the entrenched issues of census credibility is not just a technical challenge but a necessary step towards achieving inclusive governance and sustainable development. Only then can the question, “How many are we really?” be answered with the certainty and confidence that the future demands.
©️AI-KO
September 20th -30th 2024
