The first quarter of 2026 was mostly a failure for the Russians. After January, the advance on the ground was nearly net zero, and the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign continued to inflict damage on Russian oil infrastructure and degrade Russian air-defence assets.
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Black Bird Group
@Black_BirdGroup
According to our data in March the net gains of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine were approximately 25km²
This is slightly more from than it was in February, a net negative, but the Russian offensive momentum has clearly dimimished compared to late 2025.
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