THE SNP are set to have an outright majority at Holyrood after the Scottish parliament elections in May, according to a major new poll which has projected the results of every constituency and regional list.
The new research run exclusively for The National is only the second one ever to use multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) – a statistical method that combines survey and population data – to estimate the results of a Scottish parliament election.
Conducted by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, it found that the SNP are set to return 67 MSPs, enough to control the 129-seat Holyrood parliament outright. You can see how the results break down in full here.
First Minister John Swinney has said that an SNP majority should act as a trigger for a second independence referendum, following the “precedent” set by the majority won in 2011.
Elsewhere, Labour were projected to finish in second place with 17 MSPs, which would be their worst-ever result in a Scottish parliament election. Reform and the Greens were predicted to tie for third place.
The MRP poll also predicted that Scottish Labour depute leader Jackie Baillie, former Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw, and SNP minister Maree Todd could all be set to lose their constituency seats in the Holyrood parliament.
The headline voting numbers from the poll of more than 4000 Scots were:
- SNP: 34% on constituency and 29% on list.
- Labour: 18% on constituency and 17% on list.
- Reform: 15% on constituency and 16% on list.
- Greens: 9% on constituency and 14% on list.
- Tories: 10% on constituency and 10% on list.
- LibDems: 10% on constituency and 10% on list.
After MRP calculations to reflect the demographics of each constituency and region, the Scotland was predicted to elect the following numbers of MSPs:
- SNP: 67 (67 constituency, 0 list)
- Labour: 17 (1 constituency, 16 list)
- Reform: 14 (0 constituency, 14 list)
- Greens: 14 (0 constituency, 14 list)
- Tories: 9 (0 constituency, 9 list)
- LibDems: 8 (5 constituency, 3 list)
There are 73 constituencies in total, with the remaining 56 MSPs winning places through regional lists.
The MRP found 6% support for “other” on the Highlands and Islands regional list, which would be sufficient to return an MSP should those votes all coalesce around a single candidate. However, the “other” vote is likely to be split between a number of smaller parties and independents, so the final list seat was accordingly assigned to the LibDems.
Key points from the poll:
According to the MRP poll, Scottish Labour’s depute leader Jackie Baillie is set to lose her Dumbarton constituency for the first time since devolution in 1999. Labour were predicted to win just one constituency: Daniel Johnson’s Edinburgh Southern. Their other 16 MSPs were projected to come from the list.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (left) and deputy leader Jackie Baillie (Image: PA)
For the SNP, all 67 of their seats were predicted to come from constituencies, meaning they would have no list MSPs at all despite leading that portion of the vote by 12 points.
And the party was projected to lose Caithness, Sutherland and Ross to the LibDems. That result would see SNP minister Maree Todd leave parliament, as her top position on the SNP’s Highlands and Islands list would not be enough to salvage her place.
In better news for the SNP, the party was projected to take Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse from Labour. Anas Sarwar’s party won the seat in a by-election in 2025.
The SNP were also projected to take five constituencies from the Conservatives: Aberdeenshire West; Dumfriesshire; Eastwood; Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire; and Galloway and West Dumfries.
READ MORE: Fuming Reform candidate pulls out of The National's election hustings
Eastwood was won by former Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw in 2021, and he is contesting the seat again in May. Carlaw is second on the Tories’ West Scotland list, behind current party leader Russell Findlay.
The predicted results are from only the second-ever MRP conducted for a Scottish election. The first, in February, was run by Stonehaven for The Times and also predicted that the SNP will win an outright majority of 67 seats without returning a single MSP on any regional lists.
Just as in this new MRP, Labour were projected to win a single constituency, while the LibDems take five.
However, that February poll projected that Reform UK would emerge as Holyrood’s second largest party with 25 MSPs.
This latest MRP put them on 14 seats, joint third with the Greens, suggesting that the party’s vote may be sliding down as election day nears.
READ MORE: Labour fall behind SNP in mindblowing Westminster poll
Martin Baxter, the chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said: "The SNP's hold on Scotland was looking fragile, following the departure of Nicola Sturgeon and their poor General Election result in 2024, when they were reduced to just nine Westminster seats.
“But Labour's victory then has turned sour in voters' mouths, and the SNP are back as the most popular party in Scotland by some margin.”
He added: “In terms of seats, this support should see the SNP continue in government, either with an overall majority, or in partnership with a smaller party.
“Labour look likely to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and Sir Keir Starmer's woes are resonating loud and clear in Scotland."
Find Out Now polled 4105 Scottish adults online between 13-31 March 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics, and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
