JD Vance once called Trump ‘cultural heroin.’ The Iran War proves he was right.

Ten years ago, then-San Francisco resident JD Vance wrote a column about his upbringing in rural Ohio. It was a stark contrast to the West Coast life he and his wife, Usha, had built through hard work and education. Vance lamented the opioid crisis that had ravaged his home and the economic, social, and moral ails that preceded it. I could relate, I too had gone to college in Ohio and there was a massive change in smalltown America over the years, one that plenty of politicians refused to address. Except one.

It’s been known that Vance wasn’t always the MAGA darling he now is. He was very famously a “Never Trump” guy. I’m not here to bash him for changing his views — his ascent to political relevance was directly tied to his acceptance of President Trump and his MAGA movement. However, Vance now finds himself at a crossroads.

A Marine veteran and an Iraq War veteran like me, he has long been critical of the America’s love of forever wars. Yet now he also has to be a cheerleader for a conflict that he knows could turn into another Middle Eastern quagmire. He knows because he predicted it. In fact, if you look at the entirety of Trump’s second term so far, Vance looks a lot like Nostradamus.

“To every complex problem, he offers a simple solution,” Vance once wrote. That perfectly sums up how Trump has dealt with a myriad of issues. Free trade wasn’t good, so blanket tariffs were the answer with no distinction between ally or foe. Immigration would be solved by yanking people off the streets, Constitution be damned until ICE agents ran face first into the First and Second amendments. Deportations sounded great until we realized that the vast majority of immigrants aren’t criminals but supporting our economy.

Prices went up. Inflation has remained stubborn. Employment isn’t growing like it used to. Homes are unaffordable and mortgage rates remain high. Energy costs have skyrocketed. People are hurting, and Trump voters are hurting just as much as the rest of us, if not more. What has Trump offered them? The chance to “feel” American.

The ballroom, the airplane, the signature on money, the coinage, the names on buildings, the parades, the cage fights and of course, the mean tweets (or “Truths”) have provided nothing for the average American who thought that voting in Trump and a Republican majority would fix their problems. The hardships that have been exacerbated by Trump’s policies have been mollified with a wait and see approach. Maybe at some point, he will get to work on their problems instead of pursuing his own financial gain and narcissistic ego.

But for now, Trump has delivered what Vance predicted, an “easy escape from the pain.” Yes, he has definitely owned the libs, pissed off our allies, kicked political correctness in the butt, and given people a voice. Many Americans were sick of politicians who were trying to talk to everyone and ended up talking to no one. Trump gave voters a quick hit of validation and a chance to stick it to those they blamed for their troubles.

Now there is one group of Trump voters that did come out on top. The ultra wealthy have prospered because of tax cuts, the stock market and off the plight of average Americans. The same average Americans who thought Trump would help them. But for those who are paycheck to paycheck, looking for work, cutting down on expenses, and full of worry about things to come, all they have are slogans, platitudes, and simple solutions that will never solve complex problems.

Vance warned us of this ten years ago and even alluded to the current conflict in Iran. “What Trump offers is an easy escape from the pain. To every complex problem, he promises a simple solution. … He will spare the United States from humiliation and military defeat with indiscriminate bombing. It doesn’t matter that no credible military leader has endorsed his plan. He never offers details for how these plans will work, because he can’t. Trump’s promises are the needle in America’s collective vein.”

Trump has made a lot of bombastic statements to justify his war on Iran. Beating them on the first day, even though the war stretches into a month. Claiming to destroy their military although missiles and drones continue to fall on Israel and the Gulf States. Claim after claim and promise after promise has been debunked and we now face the specter of ground troops in another Middle Eastern quagmire.

Vance has to walk a tightrope. He is the presumptive heir to the MAGA movement and has to appease the boss. But he knows that he was right about Trump years ago and is looking at Iran as a bane he might inherit. But he also has to come to terms with his prophecy if he wants to be president. Trump has been nothing but quick hits of heroin to a country that needs rehab. As Vance correctly said, “Trump is cultural heroin. He makes some feel better for a bit. But he cannot fix what ails them, and one day they’ll realize it.” Iran might bring that day sooner than later.

Jos Joseph is a recipient of the Military Reporters and Editors award for Best Commentary/Opinion. A graduate of Harvard and Ohio State University, he is a Marine veteran who served in Iraq. He currently lives in Anaheim, California..