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Investing.com - H.C. Wainwright lowered its price target on Alumis Inc (NASDAQ:ALMS) to $25 from $40 while maintaining a Buy rating on Monday. The stock currently trades at $24.80 with a market cap of $3.15 billion, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the shares may be overvalued relative to its Fair Value estimate.
The firm adjusted its assumptions following data presented at the American Academy of Dermatology annual meeting in Denver, Colorado. The analyst reduced pricing assumptions for envudeucitinib and lowered peak psoriasis market penetration estimates to reflect increased competition in the oral treatment segment.
H.C. Wainwright cited Johnson & Johnson’s icotrokinra as holding the strongest commercial position given its approval and direct superiority versus Sotyktu. Takeda’s zasocitinib was identified as a compelling TYK2 inhibitor with once-daily dosing, no fasting restrictions, and strong clear-skin rates.
The firm said envudeucitinib remains comparable to zasocitinib on efficacy but faces pricing pressure from competing with a once-daily TYK2 inhibitor and an approved oral IL-23 inhibitor peptide. The analysis incorporated recent dilution and rolled the model forward.
H.C. Wainwright adjusted its discount rate to 11% from 12%, stating that psoriasis datasets from Alumis and Takeda validate the oral TYK2 class and should reduce physician skepticism.Despite the reduced price target, Alumis shares have delivered remarkable returns of 340% over the past year. InvestingPro Tips highlight that while the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, analysts don’t anticipate profitability this year. For investors seeking deeper insights, InvestingPro offers 10 additional exclusive tips on ALMS.
In other recent news, Alumis Inc. has announced the results from two Phase 3 clinical trials evaluating envudeucitinib for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The trials, ONWARD1 and ONWARD2, involved over 1,700 patients and the data was presented at the 2026 American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting. Alongside these developments, Raymond James has initiated coverage on Alumis with a Strong Buy rating, highlighting the potential of envudeucitinib to capture market share in non-biologic treatments for psoriasis. Stifel also began coverage with a Buy rating, emphasizing the potential of next-generation TYK2 inhibitors. Chardan Capital Markets joined in with a Buy rating, noting that envudeucitinib achieved all primary and secondary endpoints in the Phase 3 trials. Alumis plans to submit a New Drug Application for envudeucitinib in the second half of 2026. These recent developments underscore the growing interest and optimism around Alumis’s lead asset in the treatment of plaque psoriasis.
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