Four weeks ago, just as the Iran war broke out and WTI was still trading well below $80, JPMorgan's commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva was the first to warn that the first big risk to oil prices were the accumulating shut-ins of oil production among Gulf Producers as the inability to move new product meant storage facilities would quickly fill, forcing production to be shut, a process which could take weeks if not months to undo. Well, with the war now in day 27, we are effectively there, with much of Gulf shut-ins now implemented and limiting maximum output for the foreseeable future even if the Strait were to reopen tomorrow. 

Asia is the first region to feel the squeeze