First thing to note, there is only a small drop in YE Dec 2025 compared to YE Jun 2025. People will use this to say my prediction of big falls is wrong, but this isn't the case. The government will likely press ahead with new restrictions. But the White Paper restrictions came in gradually. (2/x)

Things fall further in 2027 than 2026. Dependant numbers will continue to drop for longer than the fall in main applicants (workers often settle, then bring family), they're still quite high. Earned Settlement has been delayed to Autumn 2026 and will lead a lot of people to leave. (3/x)

But then emigration starts to fall as fewer EU nationals and student and work visa holders leave. A reversal in late 2028 as two cohorts of graduate visas expire together (the last of the 2-year ones and first of the 18-month ones) and students can no longer get a visa to work as a care worker.(4/x)

By year ending Dec 2029 net migration will be positive again as emigration continues to fall. But Earned Settlement keeps things low for a while. Things only normalise after April 2035- 5 years after the last visas are renewed under the transitional lower going rates. (5/x)

The model gives 109,000 as a long-term steady state but the actual figure is likely to be a bit higher, eg if any of the following happen: 1) Increase demand for high skilled workers by employers 2) Increased demand by international students 3) A new refugee crisis (6/6)

PS of course political realities will mean the actual trends are different to this. It's unlikely that very strict immigration laws survive three years of negative net migration in reality. Unless Reform win the next general election, then we're looking at even lower negative figures. (7/7)