If Microsoft wants Windows 12 to succeed, it can't let history repeat itself - let me explain
Follow ZDNET: Add us as a preferred source on Google.
ZDNet's key takeaways
- Windows 12 isn't coming this year - here's the timeline I'm betting on.
- You'll likely need AI-optimized hardware, and your old apps might not work.
- I expect paid subscriptions will be required for advanced features.
We are at a rare moment in Microsoft history, when the company that defined the modern PC is supporting a single version of its flagship operating system. Windows 10 is officially unsupported as of October 2025. Windows 11 now stands alone in the market, with a billion active users, according to Microsoft's most recent quarterly earnings report. In October 2026, Windows 11 will celebrate its fifth anniversary -- which is traditionally the halfway point in Microsoft's 10-year support lifecycle.
Also: Microsoft announces sweeping Windows changes - but no apologies
That all suggests the next version of Windows -- let's call it Windows 12 -- will be here before you know it, ready or not. In fact, earlier this month, PCWorld, a reliable source of technology news, published a startling report (translated from its German counterpart, PC-Welt) claiming that Windows 12 would arrive in 2026. On Reddit, a post discussing the article went viral, gathering 18,000 upvotes and inspiring nearly 7,000 comments.
Then, a few hours later, executive editor Brad Chacos posted an apology and a retraction: "This article ... does not meet PCWorld's standards and should not have been published." (Full disclosure: I was once managing editor of PC World, when it was a print magazine. Having to write that sort of retraction would have been my worst nightmare.)
Long story short: No, Windows 12 is not coming in 2026. Microsoft has already announced that Windows 11 will receive its normal feature update -- version 26H2 -- later this year. Confusingly, there's also a brand-new version 26H1 that will arrive in the next few months, built for the new Qualcomm Snapdragon X2 processors.
Earlier this year, the head of the Windows division, Pavan Davuluri, publicly apologized to angry and frustrated Windows 11 customers: "This year you will see us focus on addressing pain points we hear consistently from customers: improving system performance, reliability, and the overall experience of Windows."
Also: How to check your Windows PC for expiring security certificates - a big one is ending soon
But that doesn't mean Microsoft isn't working on the next generation of Windows. Last December, when I first wrote this article, I offered my best guess as to what we're likely to see in that product -- and when it's likely to arrive.
Let me warn you: You're probably not going to like my predictions.
1. Everything old is new again
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If you want to know what's coming next from Microsoft, just look at its past failures.
Look at the first release of Edge, which was built on a heavily modified version of the Internet Explorer engine. It failed miserably, so Microsoft killed it and replaced it with a browser built on the open-source Chromium codebase, while keeping the name. It's now a core part of Windows 11 and is tolerated by web designers and end users in a way its predecessors never could manage.
Also: I've used Windows for decades, but I tried Linux to see if it's truly 'easy' now
Or how about Cortana? That was Microsoft's attempt to build a digital assistant to compete with Apple's Siri. It launched with great fanfare in 2014 and belly-flopped. It was unceremoniously deprecated in 2020. But Microsoft didn't give up on the idea of a smart assistant, which now exists in a much more prominent capacity as Copilot. You may have heard of it.
Microsoft's biggest failure of all -- one for the record books -- was the Surface RT, a tablet powered by an Arm processor. It ran Windows RT, which supported an extremely limited selection of apps from the Windows Store. People hated the hardware and the software.
I regret to inform you that I am placing my bets on Microsoft reviving some of the key ideas from that all-time failure.
The company has already tried twice, without success. First was the introduction of the much-loathed Windows 10 S in 2017. It was designed as a locked-down OS that could run only apps from the Windows Store and couldn't install third-party apps or drivers delivered via standard Windows installers. It was renamed Windows 10 in S Mode and is all but deprecated on Windows 11.
And then there's the ill-fated Windows 10X, which was announced in October 2019, just months before the onset of the global pandemic. According to my erstwhile colleague Mary Jo Foley, Windows 10X was designed "to provide some of the same benefits as Windows 10 in S Mode ... such as reducing 'Win Rot,' better 'Instant On,' a reduced attack surface, and provision of more seamless updates." Most intriguingly, it was going to run legacy Win32 apps in containers.
Also: Microsoft was right about the future of PCs - it just took the MacBook Neo to prove it
Microsoft put Windows 10X on a back burner in 2021 so it could concentrate on Windows 11. But I just have to believe that developers are still working feverishly to reintroduce those concepts in the next version of Windows.
None of what I've written here is based on inside information. This is speculation on my part, but given my focus on Microsoft's track record over more than three decades, I'm confident most of predictions should be a pretty safe bet.
2. You'll need AI-optimized hardware
AI is not going away. Microsoft is embedding its Copilot features in every nook, crevice, cranny, and settings page in Windows 11. It's also expecting people to pay for the privilege -- those data centers are expensive to build, and they rack up pretty serious electric bills every month.
I expect that the next version of Windows will require a PC that meets Microsoft's Copilot+ standard, which requires a dedicated neural processing unit (NPU), with higher memory and storage standards as well.
Also: Your PC's critical security certificates may be about to expire - how to check
If those specs are enforced, the result will be similar to what happened with Windows 11's hardware requirements, with a large number of older machines incapable of upgrading beyond Windows 11.
Arm-based systems will be preferred for home users, I predict, with businesses continuing to stick with Intel and AMD (although that might change).
3. Your old apps might not work
There are many good reasons to design an operating system that will only run apps from a trusted repository (including its own store). Apple seems to have done a good job with that model on iPhone and iPad, and you know Microsoft would love to do the same with Windows. That would block the most common sources of malware and reliability issues. Unfortunately, it might also block the one app you absolutely need to run.
Also: Here's why Windows PCs are only going to get more annoying
The good news is that the Microsoft Store and the Winget repository now include an enormous number of apps. I've been using a wonderful app called UniGetUI (available in the Microsoft Store!), which wraps an easy-to-use command-line interface around Winget and the store. After using that app for several months, I've found only a scattered few programs that require an old-fashioned installer. That's a huge difference from the old Windows Store days.
My prediction? The Home version of Windows 12 will only allow you to use apps you get from a trusted source. You'll need to upgrade to a Pro or Enterprise edition if you want to install Win32 apps downloaded from an external source, and those apps will run in sandboxed containers (or even in Microsoft's cloud-based Windows 365 PCs), so they can't do any damage.
Don't get me wrong: Those moves will be good for the Windows ecosystem. But enthusiasts and traditionalists might not be happy about what they perceive as a loss of freedom. And we know from experience how quickly a Microsoft product can acquire a bad reputation due to misconceptions and misunderstandings.
4. You'll need a paid subscription for advanced features
At the dawn of the Windows 10 era, I wrote "Windows 10 subscriptions aren't happening. Here's why". That prediction has stood up for nearly 10 years, but I think Microsoft has finally laid the groundwork to start charging a monthly subscription fee for Windows.
That doesn't mean that the traditional Windows business model is going away. I believe the overwhelming majority of PC users will still buy Windows preinstalled on a new PC, with the cost included in the hardware price. Instead of calling that built-in OS Windows Home Edition, let's call it Windows Core. (Microsoft has been working on various iterations of this idea for years -- Windows OneCore, Windows CoreOS, and Windows Lite, for example.) If you're happy with that baseline feature set, you can keep using it. Like a timeshare salesman, Microsoft will annoy you with cross-sells, upsells, and shameless promotions for services like OneDrive, Microsoft 365, and Xbox Live. Just keep saying no.
Also: How to upgrade your 'incompatible' Windows 10 PC to Windows 11 - for free
But I will not be surprised to see the Pro edition go away, replaced by a subscription-based package that gives you all the Pro features for a monthly fee rather than a one-time license charge. If I were a Microsoft product manager, I would call it Microsoft 365 Pro, and throw in a slew of credits for Copilot tokens to justify putting a monthly price tag of $10 or even $20 on the package.
It's a time-tested model: Enterprise admins have been paying for Microsoft 365 E3 and E5 licenses that are designed exactly this way. It's time for that model to move down to the Pro editions.
5. It will be here before you're ready
If Windows 12 follows the same timeline as Windows 11, here's how it will play out:
- Development of Windows 11 will slow in 2026 as development of Windows 12 accelerates behind the scenes.
- The final (minor) feature update for Windows 11 will arrive in 2027.
- Look for a preview release of Windows 12 in July 2027.
- Release date? My money is on October 2027.
6. It'll have a unique name
What will it be called? The obvious choice is Windows 12, but Microsoft has a history of upending the board with "game changer" releases, and everything the company has done in the Satya Nadella era suggests that it expects this one to be a game-changer. Think Windows 95, Windows XP, and Windows Vista.
Also: Microsoft has lost its way
Given Microsoft's current branding obsession with its AI features, it's an easy jump: Windows Copilot Edition, anyone?
Featured
After 30 years with Linux, I gave Windows 11 a chance - and found 9 clear problems
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Follow ZDNET: Add us as a preferred source on Google.
ZDNET's key takeaways
- Jack Wallen spends a week using Windows 11.
- During this experiment, he encountered a wide range of issues.
- In the end, it made him appreciate Linux all the more.
"Why do people willingly use Windows?" Less than one hour into my experiment, this question came to mind, and over the next seven days, I was unable to arrive at an answer.
Hello, my name is Jack Wallen, and I'm a glutton for punishment. For whatever reason, a week ago today, I decided to switch my default operating system from Linux to Windows. I did not come at it with any preconceived conclusions. In fact, I wanted the experience to be positive.
Also: How to check your Windows PC for expiring security certificates - a big one is ending soon
I wanted to start using Windows and experience all the reasons people use the OS for both business and personal use. Surely, Windows 11 was an efficient, zippy, user-friendly, and reliable operating system, right?
Turns out, it was none of those things.
Remember, this is coming from a longtime Linux user who has been accustomed to an OS that can be and function exactly how I want it to. I'm used to being in control of my desktop -- not having my desktop control me.
That's exactly how I felt while using Windows 11. I'd been moved out of the driver's seat and relegated to the back seat with the children, as the adults insisted we do what they wanted, how they wanted, and when they wanted.
Let me share my experience with you. Hopefully, after reading this, you'll finally want to ditch Windows for Linux.
1. Creating a local account was a pain
Right out of the gate, Windows 11 showed me just how painful it was going to be. I did not want to use a Windows account to log into the operating system (and why would anyone willingly do that?). So, I set about to create a local account.
Wow, what a pain that was. In Linux, I can create an account with the command sudo adduser jack. Answer a few simple questions (such as full name and password), and that's it. I can log out of one account and log in with the other.
Also: The best Linux VPNs of 2026: Expert tested and reviewed
With Windows 11, I pretty much had to sell my soul, do a backflip, promise to kneel at the foot of Microsoft, and learn to fly. OK, that's what it felt like.
Your first steps with an OS should not be hair-pullingly frustrating.
2. Google Passkeys will not work
Ah, Google and its passkeys. This is another point of contention because they rolled out a service that simply wasn't ready.
Now, I'm not sure if this is Google's or Microsoft's problem, but no matter what I did, I could not sign in to my Google account. Mind you, I could create a new Linux virtual machine and, within seconds, be connected to my Google account. But with Windows, I had to enable the "Hello" service before passkeys would work.
Even then (with my Google passkey literally in hand), Windows 11 wouldn't play along. Come on!
3. An email client that really frustrated me
I needed an email client, and I thought I'd try one from the Microsoft App Store.
The email client in question was Mailbird. Once I had Mailbird installed and an account added, the app decided it wanted me to pony up for the paid version by way of a pop-up. But this wasn't any old pop-up. This pop-up prevented me from accessing other apps. I couldn't open the process monitor to close Mailbird, and I couldn't open the terminal window to close Mailbird. I was stuck.
The only solution I found was to reboot and work as quickly as I could to delete the app before Mailbird mysteriously opened (without my doing so) and took control. I eventually succeeded, but it took me several tries.
With Linux, I could have used SSH to log in to the desktop and uninstall Mailbird from the command line.
4. Natural scrolling is so unnatural
The next thing I had to do was disable natural scrolling. Whoever thought this was a good idea should be fired. Off to Settings I went. The feature was fairly simple to find, and I switched it to my preferred scrolling direction.
That should have been the end of it, but no! For whatever reason, I could not get Windows to honor the change. No matter what I did, Windows 11 insisted natural scrolling was what I wanted. Au contraire, mon ami.
Also: The only Linux command you need for monitoring network traffic - and how to use it
The entire time I used Windows 11, my brain had to constantly readjust itself and remember I was living in Bizzaroworld.
5. Ads? Are you kidding me?
Seriously. I saw ads at the far left of the Windows 11 panel. I also spotted them in the desktop menu. Why would anyone be OK with this?
To avoid that altogether, I installed the Seelen window manager so I didn't have to see ads or look at that boring Windows 11 UI.
Ads... in an OS. Sheesh.
6. Save As defaults to OneDrive? Why?
After about an hour working with Windows 11, I had to save a file and noticed that it immediately defaulted to OneDrive. I hadn't even logged in to my OneDrive account (because I never use it). This was very frustrating for me because I do not want my work saved to a cloud account (for several reasons, many of which have to do with AI).
I wanted to remove OneDrive from the entire experience but decided it wasn't worth the effort for a weeklong experiment.
7. Windows 11 uses so many resources
After I realized that the laptop I was using ran really hot and the fans were constantly kicking on, I did a bit of quick investigating and found the msedgewebview2.exe process to be the problem. This process is part of the Microsoft Edge WebView2 Runtime, and it consumes considerable resources. The crazy thing is, I wasn't even using Edge. I installed Opera and used it exclusively.
Also: Yes, you can run Windows apps on Linux - here are my top 5 ways
I'm sure there's a good reason why msedgewebview2.exe was running, but to consume more resources than Opera with ten or so tabs open is crazy.
8. Virus and threat protection
This is Windows, so I fully understand the need for protection. I cannot imagine using this OS without a few levels of protection because, without it, it's just a matter of time before something nefarious happens.
I decided to check in on it and found, to my shock, that Virus and Threat Protection was not enabled, nor was account protection or app and browser control. From the looks of it, the first two are cloud-based and Windows account-based. However, on another page within Windows Security, both are listed as On. What's the disconnect?
I would never experience this on Linux (nor would I need to). To be honest, I expected to find out that too many protection services were up and running -- not the opposite.
9. Power and battery options
I used a laptop to test Windows 11. During my first few hours, I noticed something: the laptop screen wasn't going black or entering hibernation. Doesn't Windows 11 auto-detect if it's being used on a laptop? Linux sure does. Had I not known to look for this, I could have been using that laptop unplugged and run out of battery prematurely.
Why is that the default?
Also: Want to ditch Windows? This Linux distro makes that transition easy
On top of all the above issues, I always felt as if something was going to crash on me and cause me to lose work, or that Windows would decide it needed to update and automatically reboot on me. I never once (during the entire week) felt as if I could relax and just use the OS to do my work. Not once.
This is my last day using Windows 11
Since publishing this piece, I've headed back to my wooby -- Linux. I hope to never have to depend on Windows again because if this experience has taught me anything, it's that Linux is exponentially better than Windows in every conceivable way -- at least for me.
