Democracy Dies in Darkness

U.S. intelligence says Iran’s regime is consolidating power

Despite withering airstrikes, officials see a weakened but more hard-line government in Tehran, backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces.

March 16, 2026 at 4:08 p.m. EDTToday at 4:08 p.m. EDT

10 min

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People chant during a Quds Day demonstration in Tehran on Friday. The pro-Palestinian event was created in Iran in 1979 and is held on the last Friday of Ramadan. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

By Ellen Nakashima

Warren P. Strobel

and

Susannah George

Despite more than two weeks of relentless airstrikes, U.S. intelligence assessments say, Iran’s regime likely will remain in place for now, weakened but more hard-line, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces exerting greater control.

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By Ellen Nakashima

Ellen Nakashima is an intelligence and national security reporter at The Washington Post. She's been a member of three Pulitzer prizewinning teams, for probing the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, Russian interference in the 2016 election, and the hidden scope of government surveillance. Send her secure tips on Signal at Ellen.626 @nakashimae

By Warren P. Strobel

Warren P. Strobel is a reporter at The Washington Post covering U.S. intelligence. He has written about U.S. security policies under seven presidents. He received numerous awards, and was portrayed in the movie "Shock and Awe," for his skeptical reporting on the decision to invade Iraq. Send him secure tips on Signal at 202 744 1312@wstrobel

By Susannah George

Susannah George covers global affairs and national security for The Washington Post based in Washington D.C. She was previously the Gulf bureau chief based in Dubai, where she led coverage of the Persian Gulf monarchies and Iran. Before that she was The Post's Afghanistan-Pakistan bureau chief. @sgreports

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