Trump must attack Iran’s center of gravity

Conventional military thought, derived from the writings of Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, dictates that one identify the enemy’s center of gravity, then “concentrate all energy against it.”

For the Islamic Republic of Iran, its center of gravity — “the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act” — is its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose principal mission is to keep the regime in power.

While the U.S. and Israeli militaries have systematically dismantled Iran’s conventional military and nuclear ambitions — the direct threat to them — they have left the internal security forces — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Basij paramilitary — mostly intact. 

The Basij are the direct threat to the Iranian people and stand in their way of taking back their country, as President Trump urged them to do. They are not likely to “lay down their arms … and accept immunity.”

Last week U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper described Operation Epic Fury as an “unprecedented operation to eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten Americans.” On that score, it is already largely a success.

“We’re very far ahead of schedule,” Trump said on Monday. He claimed that Iran has “no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”

The metrics appear to support these comments. The Iranian navy and air force have been nearly eradicated; ballistic missile and drone mobile launchers, production and storage facilities have been mostly destroyed; Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and produce a nuclear weapon are being neutralized; and their proxies — Hezbollah and Hamas — have been left withering on a vine.

Yet the regime remains in place. Trump’s war has not stopped Iran’s ability to threaten the Iranian citizens whom Trump would prefer to serve as his boots on the ground, rising up and bringing about regime change.

So, what about the guard corps and the Basij? What happens when the Trump administration achieves its military objectives, but fails at regime-change? The question is especially pressing now that Iran’s Assembly of Experts has chosen Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei — much younger than his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — as the country’s new Supreme Leader.

This is not regime change, nor does it meet the conditions for Trump’s “unconditional surrender.” As the saying goes, they just rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Last Thursday, Trump told Axios that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me. We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran.”

By most accounts, Mojtaba is more extreme than his father –– a true hardliner. And given the loss in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes of four family members — including his father, mother, wife and one of his two sons — he has a personal axe to grind as well.

But to add an additional layer of complexity to the problem set, he may not even be alive. His whereabouts remain unknown; conflicting reports suggest he was wounded or even killed early in the opening moments of Operation Epic Fury. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is protecting him — or else it is at least protecting the identity of whoever is actually making the decisions now.

Iran’s regime, and their keepers, are deeply entrenched in the fabric of Iranian society after 47 years. Removing the supreme leader is part of the solution, but so too is destroying the institution charged with keeping him in power. 

Tomahawks, Precision Strike Missiles and bunker busters may set the conditions, but at some point, the physical removal of these forces on the ground will be required.

That could lead to “boots on the ground” in the form of clandestine U.S. operators or special forces teams reminiscent of the initial operations in Afghanistan, working directly with resistance in the regular Iranian military or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps itself.

Recognizing that there is a pathway to the center of gravity — and degrading the military is that pathway — the Trump administration must act to support the Iranian people and set conditions for them to act.

The people need a partner on the ground, and the White House needs someone to step up, take charge and build up a transitional government. But this cannot lead to an Iraq-style occupation. As we have learned, occupation leads to insurgency.

As former U.S. Ambassador John Bolton noted on X, “The regime in Iran is an ideologically driven group of religious fanatics, and it will rebuild if the U.S. declares premature victory.” We need to finish the job this time by attacking Iran’s center of gravity. That means defeating the guard corps and the Basij.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the US European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.