Why naval escorts through Strait of Hormuz are so risky

The U.S. has yet to begin escorting oil tankers through the treacherous Strait of Hormuz, something that increasingly looks like a high-risk proposition during the war with Iran.

President Trump, who floated using escorts to reopen the waterway and avoid an oil crisis amid soaring global prices, so far has held off, opting instead for strikes against mine-laying vessels near the strait.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also deferred on any timeline for such a mission, saying Thursday it was his belief that the Navy, along with a possible international coalition, will begin escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz “as soon as it is militarily possible.”

“It is a prospect as soon as … it is possible to ensure safe passage,” he told Sky News.

The hesitation betrays the dangerous nature of inserting American warships into the waters just off the Iranian coast, where they face direct attack by drones or shore-to-ship ballistic missiles as retaliation for the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war in the country, experts say.

“The challenge is going to be dealing with the proximity of the drone launchers and the missile launchers that are going to be along the Iranian coast,” said Bryan Clark, an expert in naval operations with the Hudson Institute.

“The issue is that you only have a couple of minutes once the launcher comes out before the missiles are going to get on top of you, because you’re only talking about 3 or 4 miles from the shoreline to the transit lane.”

One of the world’s most important choke points in seaborne shipping, the Strait of Hormuz is located between Oman and Iran, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Tehran has effectively blocked the waterway since the start of the war nearly two weeks ago, sending oil prices surging as ships fearing attack can’t get through. About a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows through the strait.

Three cargo ships were struck by unknown projectiles in the Gulf on Wednesday, with another three ⁠other⁠ ships hit on Thursday — one of which was claimed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). That brings the number of reported attacks against vessels operating near the Iranian coast to at least 19.

Iran has shown no sign that it will lift the blockade, even after threats and actions from the U.S. — with American forces destroying 16 mine-laying vessels in the waterway Tuesday.

The IRGC has maintained that it will not allow “even a single liter of oil” to pass through until U.S. and Israeli strikes cease. A statement attributed to the newly selected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on Thursday asserted that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.

The difficulty in protecting tankers and other ships in the strait lies in the narrowness of the waterway. It is only 21 miles from shore to shore at its smallest point, giving vessels little wiggle room to avoid Iranian-placed mines or missiles and rockets launched from the banks.

“You can shut down the strait through fear alone,” retired Navy Rear Adm. and former Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Thursday on MS Now’s “Morning Joe.”

“In the first few days of this war that’s exactly why the strait was shut down. They hadn’t fired a single drone, they hadn’t shot a missile, they hadn’t laid a mine, but nobody was going through that strait because they were afraid,” Kirby said.

Trump last week first raised the idea of naval escorts for tankers in the strait “if necessary,” but on Monday, he hoped they wouldn’t be needed.

“When the time comes the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the strait if needed. I hope it’s not going to be needed, but if it’s needed, we’ll escort them right through,” he said.

But even with Naval escorts, an expensive and time-consuming mission, it’s “not necessarily a guaranteed success,” according to Kirby. 

“Drones can fly low and slow, they can fly fast and low, and they can do a lot of damage even to one ship with the Navy not being able to knock it out of the sky,” he said.

Protecting oil tankers in the strait came up in a classified briefing between U.S. military officials and top lawmakers Tuesday.

“On the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) wrote in a post to the social platform X after the briefing. “I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open.”

Rose Kelanic, the Middle East director at the Defense Priorities think tank, said such a mission would be a risky and difficult military problem for a variety of reasons.

With drones and missiles launched at such close range from shore, “it’s very hard to intercept them before they hit whatever they’re firing at,” she told The Hill.

Mines are also a significant threat, as military vessels like destroyers can be far more damaged than a tanker should it hit one.

“It’s kind of counterintuitive, but in a bunch of ways military assets are actually easier to destroy than tankers are,” Kelanic told The Hill.

“If you are actually putting U.S. military assets in the strait, then you are making them vulnerable to drones and missiles and all the things that [Iran] can throw at tankers,” she said. “It’s not to say that the U.S. couldn’t do it, but you would potentially see more U.S. casualties, and I have a real sense from this administration that they are very casualty-averse.”

Clark said ships would likely have to be accompanied with “essentially continuous air patrols above the strait” watching for when Iranian launchers or drone boats might come out.

“The U.S. and its allies will have to sort of be in position to attack them before they can launch,” he said. “And hopefully you’ll hit it before it launches, or if not hit it after it launches.”

Still, the administration has tried to tamp down any concerns of a prolonged choke hold on global oil supplies, with Trump on Wednesday claiming the strait is “in great shape.”

“We’ve knocked out all of their boats. They have some missiles, but not very many. I think we’re in very good … we’re in very good shape,” he told reporters.