(cache)Predictive History

Latest — 12 Mar 2026

Game Theory #12: The Law of Eschatological Convergence

There are three major questions that will determine how this war is fought, what this war will end up looking like, and how the world will change. I am making three predictions about this war. 1. The United States will use ground troops, and this will mean that Donald Trump

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Great Books #6: The Intimacy of Love

The Odyssey is about a homecoming—about three members of a family, Odysseus, Penelope, and Telemachus, who after a 20-year separation must come together again and rediscover their love for each other. As we've discussed, all three suffer from depression. Odysseus suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder because war

Game Theory #11: The Law of Escalation

We continue our analysis of the US-Iran war. In this conflict, there are three major questions that will determine its outcome as well as the state of the world afterward. These three questions are: 1. Will the US launch a ground invasion? 2. Will nukes be used? 3. What will

Game Theory #10: The Law of Asymmetry

We continue our discussion of the US-Iran war that is happening right now. I made the prediction that the United States will lose this war, and last time we did an overview of the military and strategic position. Today, we're going to provide a theoretical framework for how

Great Books #5: The Odyssey

The Odyssey is a sequel to the Iliad, and it's a family story—a story about a homecoming. There are three main characters: Odysseus, who is the main character and why it's called the Odyssey; Penelope, who is his wife; and Telemachus, who is their son.

Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War

World War III has started. The United States and Israel have begun to attack Iran, and we are now in the fourth day of this war. We can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly also for many years. But I promise you that after this war is

Game Theory #8: Communist Specter

The 20th century was defined by the Cold War, an ideological struggle between capitalism and communism. For the longest time, we believed that capitalism and communism were polar opposites—a dialectic, a black and white. But if that is the case, then how do we explain China? For the longest

Great Books #4: The Conscious Universe

The Iliad is a war of wills. The epic starts with the battle between Agamemnon and Achilles. They're trying to impose their will on each other, and it leads to disaster for the Greeks because Hector and the Trojans are now about to destroy them. The Greeks, led

Game Theory #7: America's Game

We have already discussed the British Empire and how it ultimately triumphed over its main rivals—the French, the Spanish, and the Dutch—because of three major powers. 1. The Bank of England: What made the Bank of England so important is that it could absorb foreign capital from all

Game Theory #6: The World's Bank

There is a strange game being played in the world, and it's worth examining the behaviors it produces. Consider three things that, on the surface, don't seem to make any sense. First, many of the best and brightest in developing nations spend an inordinate amount of

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Predictive History

This blog compiles the lectures of Professor Jiang Xueqin.we analyze the recurring patterns of civilization to understand where humanity is headed next.

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