WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Bryan Abreu personifies the problem with being a setup man, perhaps baseball’s most thankless job. Abreu receives attention only after adversity while ceding the spotlight to closers with higher profiles or paychecks. The affable right-hander is fine with the arrangement, one of the myriad reasons he’s beloved inside the Houston Astros’ clubhouse.
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“I don’t really lean on that side, to be getting so much attention and all that stuff,” Abreu said on Thursday. “I’d rather be chill so I can keep focusing on my things. That’s something that I don’t look for.”
Yet, to start the season, the spotlight will shine on him. For however long Josh Hader is sidelined with a biceps issue, Abreu will assume the role every reliever relishes but few ever attain. Team officials have often described Abreu as the Astros’ “second closer,” but only one pitcher can reap the position’s benefits — both in the box score and on the open market.
Abreu may be eight months away from, at long last, becoming one. His success and age will make him among the most coveted relievers available in free agency this winter, where Abreu should shed his setup man label and be shopped as a closer to interested clubs.
Success in the role during Hader’s absence should only cement his status. Abreu has saved just 16 games across a seven-year major-league career comprising 317 appearances.
Teams don’t dole out a closer’s salary based on saves alone. Stuff supersedes everything — and Abreu’s has never been in question. His slider had a run value of 10 last season, good for 12th in MLB. Opponents hit .196 against his four-seam fastball, which had a run value of 5.
Showing the ability to harness that stuff as an unquestioned closer will only make him more attractive for anyone seeking one this winter. Abreu had a brief audition last season, when Hader strained the capsule in his left shoulder and missed the final 46 games. Abreu saved seven games, blew another and had a 4.24 ERA. A 2.08 FIP suggests some misfortune inflated that number.
“The opportunity is always out there,” Abreu said. “That’s a huge step for any reliever. Everything is a step moving forward through innings and then the top, you want to be closing games and get as many saves as you can.”
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In the four seasons since Abreu established himself in the Astros’ bullpen, only four relievers have been worth more wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Three of them, Edwin Díaz, Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams, have distinguished themselves as dominant closers.
| Pitcher | ERA | Innings | Saves | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.99 | 267 | 157 | 2.43 | 7.4 | |
3.37 | 272 2/3 | 15 | 2.71 | 6.4 | |
2.62 | 203 | 83 | 2.41 | 6.2 | |
2.08 | 182 | 80 | 2.03 | 6.1 | |
2.3 | 281 2/3 | 15 | 2.79 | 6 | |
2.76 | 223 2/3 | 103 | 2.8 | 6 | |
2.5 | 254 1/3 | 90 | 2.71 | 5.9 |
*WAR totals generated by FanGraphs.
Díaz and Williams are paid as such. Before being implicated for his alleged involvement in a gambling scheme, Clase signed a team-friendly deal with the Cleveland Guardians that contains a $10 million club option in both 2027 and 2028.
The Astros missed a chance to do the same with Abreu, whom they signed for $40,000 as an international free agent in 2013 and have developed into one of the sport’s most dominant setup men. This is the only organization he has ever known. Abreu called it “the dream of any baseball player” to “stay with one team forever,” but said on Thursday the Astros have not approached him or his representation about a contract extension.
Abreu may soon reset the free-agent market for relievers without substantial closing experience. Unless the Astros offer a deal commensurate with that value, signing an extension in spring training or any time during the season makes little sense. Bear in mind that Hader still has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract — figures that will keep him entrenched as Houston’s closer for however long he remains effective.
Hader’s $19 million average annual value is the second highest of any active reliever, trailing just the $23 million Díaz received last winter from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Abreu won’t approach either number in free agency, but he will enter the open market as a 29-year-old with a four-year track record that rivals many relievers of his ilk.
Abreu has already been sabotaged by a system that does not value setup men. During three years in arbitration — a process that rewards saves and a reliever’s status as a closer — he has made $11,050,000. According to FanGraphs’ dollar metric, which converts WAR to a dollar amount, Abreu has been worth $37 million across that same timeframe.
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The Toronto Blue Jays signed Tyler Rogers to a three-year, $37 million contract this winter. Last offseason, they gave Jeff Hoffman a three-year deal worth $33 million. Both, perhaps, offer a blueprint for Abreu’s market as a free-agent reliever with little closing experience.
Rogers saved 19 games across the previous seven seasons, but sported a 2.76 ERA and 148 ERA+ across that 424-inning sample size. Hoffman had 12 career saves and a 98 ERA+ in 467 innings before signing his deal in Toronto. Abreu has a 156 ERA+ and 2.65 ERA across 329 2/3 innings, a stretch in which he’s had one stint on the injured list — for a calf injury.
Abreu is seven years younger than Rogers and four years younger than Hoffman, which can’t be overstated when analyzing his market. Abreu is also four years younger than Robert Stephenson, whom the Los Angeles Angels gave a three-year, $33 million contract before the 2024 season. Stephenson had three career saves and a 4.64 ERA in 364 1/3 previous innings.
A four-year deal for Abreu shouldn’t be out of the question, especially if he maintains his performance this season. He finished each of the past four with an ERA+ higher than 130 and a WHIP lower than 1.17. Doing so this season, while sprinkling in some saves, should only allow his value to skyrocket.
“That’s an opportunity that every reliever is looking for: trying to be a closer, get as many saves as we can,” Abreu said.
