Democrats have flipped 28 seats since Trump’s win - Republicans have not flipped any
The president has warned Republicans that losing the midterms will be "big trouble" and has pushed for legislation that would severely restrict voters' access to the polls
A victory by New Hampshire Democrat Bobbi Boudman on Tuesday in a district previously carried by Donald Trump marked the 28th such election upset for Republicans since he retook office, an increasingly realistic portent of a midterm season that ends with Trump losing control of Congress.
Boudman clinched the state legislative seat this week after voters had backed Trump-endorsed Republican candidates in 2020 and 2024, the latter race Boudman lost by more than 13 points, according to Marissa Hebert, a spokesperson for the New Hampshire Democratic Party. Yet as Democrats across the United States continue to flip districts in their favor — and despite desperate demands from Trump for Republicans to propose legislation to limit Americans' ability to vote — the GOP has not flipped any.
“Tuesdays are becoming a headache for state Republicans across the country as they suffer one stunning defeat after another," Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams said in a statement. "These wins aren’t a flash in a pan – together, they tell an undeniable story of Democratic momentum as voters reject Republicans and blame them for soaring costs."
Low- and middle-income Americans have felt the weight of the affordability crisis on their regular purchases, and the administration's handling of its immigration enforcement agenda has alienated many who might otherwise be coaxed into voting for Republicans in the primaries.
The deeply unpopular war in Iran, of which administration officials have yet to offer a clear objective, cause or projected end date, is hurting the cases of Trump-aligned Republicans. But even before his attacks with Israel against Iran, Trump was facing a steep battle heading into the 2026 elections.
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Just a few seats shy of losing their majority, senior Republicans are eager to emphasize the party’s work to lower costs, none of which is easy to accomplish with only a few votes to spare. Trump, meanwhile, is often focused elsewhere, The Associated Press reported.
The war has disrupted the party’s message on affordability, with GOP leaders facing frequent questions about the rising cost of gas, which House Speaker Mike Johnson described as a “temporary blip.”
Meanwhile, even after the Supreme Court ruled that many of Trump's far-reaching tariffs are illegal, the remaining tariffs will still cost the average American household $400 each year, according to research from the Tax Foundation.
And though that figure is lower than in 2025, when the president's tariffs that have served as the backbone to his economic policy agenda during his second term were enforced without limit, it nonetheless defies claims by Trump and Republicans at large that the global trade tariffs have somehow saved Americans money.
These claims have failed to find purchase with most Americans, with Trump's overall approval ratings falling to historic lows in recent months, according to a polling consensus.
Rather than terminate costly tariffs or introduce an affordable healthcare proposal, Trump of late has insisted he has the answer for Republicans anxious about losing their congressional majority: build on an already strict national voter identification law to ban mail ballots and restrict transgender rights.
“It’ll guarantee the midterms,” he told Republicans gathered in the ballroom of his golf course just outside Miami on Monday. “If you don’t get it, big trouble.”
Less than 24 hours later, House Republican leaders highlighted their priorities. And the voting bill, which Trump has rebranded from the SAVE Act to the SAVE America Act, wasn’t high on the list.
In an effort to gain leverage over lawmakers, including some Republicans, Trump said he won’t sign other legislation into law until the voting bill is passed. That raises the prospect of Congress grinding to a halt just as lawmakers are asking voters to send them back to Washington.
The voting bill Trump is pushing is rooted in his insistence that he won the 2020 presidential election, claims rejected by dozens of courts and his own attorney general at the time. Critics have called the effort an attempt at voter suppression rooted in a long-disproven conspiracy about massive voter fraud across the U.S.
Oscillating blame and vague claims from the Trump administration that voter fraud investigations are important to protecting election integrity come as The New York Times editorial board, reinforcing the concerns of major civil rights organizations and legal watchdogs, warned readers that the "sanctity of the 2026 elections is indeed under threat. And the reason is Mr. Trump."
"He has repeatedly demonstrated his willingness to interfere with elections to benefit himself and his party. He has broken the law to do so and broken longstanding bipartisan traditions. Since he entered politics a decade ago, he has suggested that election outcomes are fair only if his side wins," the Times' editorial board wrote.
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"To look at this pattern and conclude that the 2026 midterm elections are safe is to leave American democracy exposed," the board wrote.
Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, expressed support for Boudman's win in New Hampshire's Carroll County District 7 this week.
“This win is yet another warning sign to Republicans across the country, and a new reality is now sinking in: no Republican seat is safe,” he said in a statement. “From now until November, Democrats are keeping our foot on the gas and organizing and competing everywhere, including to flip the New Hampshire house and take back power across the country.”